tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-68807366232176379382024-03-06T12:00:54.999-08:00Investir est un art !AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-28359316389433459272023-10-14T01:01:00.002-07:002023-10-14T23:41:29.164-07:00Victoire contre l'Etat néerlandais !<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcBcl6a-io7Cx7XVjO87huP6zlhDHGPFQEThPBnw0N1WOFka5fy8XyzO1EgcN9Fi_K7CYlsvkxam1imSuLkuGh8rCcjFLHCc-lnUtPbMCFflKf3JCdUVe_dnZIXhAs_XJqC4igbbxtfdTf67hEpbOxGJnfJh7UmEeANr9_O6MvmzIBDWqwW6mxO2RjyfD/s471/Ministerie%20van%20Financi%C3%ABn%20-%20SNS%20Reaal.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="471" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcBcl6a-io7Cx7XVjO87huP6zlhDHGPFQEThPBnw0N1WOFka5fy8XyzO1EgcN9Fi_K7CYlsvkxam1imSuLkuGh8rCcjFLHCc-lnUtPbMCFflKf3JCdUVe_dnZIXhAs_XJqC4igbbxtfdTf67hEpbOxGJnfJh7UmEeANr9_O6MvmzIBDWqwW6mxO2RjyfD/w200-h129/Ministerie%20van%20Financi%C3%ABn%20-%20SNS%20Reaal.png" width="200" /></a></div><br />Après 13 années de batailles judiciaires avec l'état néerlandais suite à l'expropriation des obligations <b>SNS REAAL</b> (cf. <a href="https://alphapourtous.blogspot.com/2013/02/exproprie-par-les-pays-bas.html" target="_blank">mon article de 2013</a>), nous avons enfin eu gain de cause ! <p></p><p>J'ai reçu la confirmation via une lettre du Ministère des Finances et le remboursement a bien été effectué.</p><p>Pour rappel SNS Reaal était le 3e plus important groupe de banque-assurance des Pays-Bas. Il avait été nationalisé brutalement par le ministre des Finance Djisselboem en 2013. Ce dernier avait décidé que non seulement les actions de ce groupe ne valait rien (contrairement à l'avis du marché) mais aussi et surtout que les obligations n'avait pas non plus de valeur !</p><p>J'avais acheté l'émission XS0310904155 qui correspond à un titre de dette subordonnée, perpétuelle, payant 6.25% de coupons et achetée 71% du PAR (donc <b>rendement réel de 8.8%</b> au moment de l'achat).</p><p>L'état néerlandais a été condamné a rembourser 86.44% du nominal (67.56% + les intérêts légaux).</p><p>Le paiement a été réalisé par l'intermédiaire des Custodians: <b>Euroclear</b> dans mon cas (et Clearstream pour d'autres investisseurs).</p><p><b>Ce fut long (10 ans!) mais justice est faite.</b></p>AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-16174635630552631752023-10-12T12:42:00.000-07:002023-10-12T12:42:03.212-07:00Bilan 2022<p>Cette année a été marquée par :</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Les fortes hausses de taux : l’<b>OAT 10y est passé de 0.13% à 3.06%</b> au cours de l’année. Le marché obligataire a souffert en conséquence.</li><li>Un brutal retour sur terre des valeurs tech (<b>-33% sur le Nasdaq</b> qui est passé de 16,320pts à 10,940 pts). Les valeurs les plus spéculatives (sans bénéfice) ont souvent vu leur valorisation fondre de -60% à -99%.</li><li>Une chute des valorisations de sociétés liées au bâtiment (notamment Vicat, Herige, Bassac, Installux…). Il s’agit de small-caps européennes qui se traitent à des multiples particulièrement bas, le marché anticipant une forte dégradation de leurs activités (à juste titre).</li></ul><p></p><p>Le portefeuille n’était pas exposé aux obligations (car leur rendement en 2021 était trop bas initialement pour justifier un investissement), en revanche il y avait une exposition à la Tech US (via Google, Meta et Amazon principalement que j’ai renforcé au cours de la chute) qui a eu un impact significatif.</p><p>Le reste du portefeuille s’est bien comporté et l’ensemble reste très diversifié.</p><p>Voici l'évolution du portefeuille (base 100) depuis sa création:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz7m3_lJfOoHlrBsbd1-QjR2Ry-ti-k0S9aWN7bkex7on-SGJaG29As8i8DxqQGjZPVdq1S6W4GjOj3ccd3eO7BzX-3Ljtq89gtPuqIzyJbrjUrT0EKAkSvh4FW6JGX24vqFjcL-lTEmrhjjY8mXletgSOOHoo9gxHVGWkJ4Ls8vOkvcH1ao-2nvCC95Yz/s947/2022%20Perf%20Portfolio%20since%20Inception.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="947" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz7m3_lJfOoHlrBsbd1-QjR2Ry-ti-k0S9aWN7bkex7on-SGJaG29As8i8DxqQGjZPVdq1S6W4GjOj3ccd3eO7BzX-3Ljtq89gtPuqIzyJbrjUrT0EKAkSvh4FW6JGX24vqFjcL-lTEmrhjjY8mXletgSOOHoo9gxHVGWkJ4Ls8vOkvcH1ao-2nvCC95Yz/w400-h221/2022%20Perf%20Portfolio%20since%20Inception.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Malgré la contreperformance 2022, le portefeuille reste en large surperformance depuis sa création face à son indice de référence.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Les performances annuelles sont les suivantes :<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicgWzQQ3QmVzs1NDP62Z93VsFkqbTWimkDk5ouKRNaHR7CR3IXOx2a95rQV3Ahy26fvGK3z8j6W11japmWmj5nS3Lu2xmIenf-OCNP33kFhQq3VzdFtbaGIKYL5zTjf5qjnn23NcCPXrLmffM7cvr80WOJQqNir7EqjuH_gJG9Y-IA0Kzzupao6tSUFO1a/s880/2022%20Annual%20Perf%20Barchart%20(with%202023%20YTD).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="880" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicgWzQQ3QmVzs1NDP62Z93VsFkqbTWimkDk5ouKRNaHR7CR3IXOx2a95rQV3Ahy26fvGK3z8j6W11japmWmj5nS3Lu2xmIenf-OCNP33kFhQq3VzdFtbaGIKYL5zTjf5qjnn23NcCPXrLmffM7cvr80WOJQqNir7EqjuH_gJG9Y-IA0Kzzupao6tSUFO1a/w400-h219/2022%20Annual%20Perf%20Barchart%20(with%202023%20YTD).png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;">(<u>Note:</u> oui, j'ai honteusement ajouté la perf YTD 2023 pour faire joli)</div><div><br /></div><div>Avec un <b>beta de 0.7</b>, le portefeuille reste moins risqué et moins volatile que le CAC40 comme le montre la régression ci-dessous:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwenqazkg07gBDv8TUK-JZOPem3IKGumfkSyesXRqS8b1IXNhvtL35yAwE7cY839SA2hc059JkA2rsO3Jfjr7qAJOQ_7YWIZ2lO2O8nSvtVF-5DF4cEmPcsMS-Z3342EyaPzq7AfoGqTD8ppDwvm3IRhU28ttvnl8DKG84ZRpmCX_Mge5y9FSqS0oTe4wa/s904/2022%20Portfolio%20regression%20against%20CAC40.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="904" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwenqazkg07gBDv8TUK-JZOPem3IKGumfkSyesXRqS8b1IXNhvtL35yAwE7cY839SA2hc059JkA2rsO3Jfjr7qAJOQ_7YWIZ2lO2O8nSvtVF-5DF4cEmPcsMS-Z3342EyaPzq7AfoGqTD8ppDwvm3IRhU28ttvnl8DKG84ZRpmCX_Mge5y9FSqS0oTe4wa/w400-h181/2022%20Portfolio%20regression%20against%20CAC40.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><p><u>Objectifs pour la suite:</u></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Remettre de la discipline dans les investissements (pas de valeurs purement spéculatives).</li><li>Davantage valoriser les vrais avantages compétitifs (et être plus dur avec les multiples de sociétés ayant de faibles marges et faibles ROIC).</li><li>Etre plus intransigeant sur les valeurs présentant une faiblesse dans leur gouvernance (mauvaise allocation de capital...). A terme elles détruisent de la valeur.</li></ul><p></p></div>AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-21684648436931950952022-06-22T17:39:00.003-07:002022-06-22T17:39:55.153-07:00Bilan 2021 : +36%<p>Le portefeuille a très bien performé en 2021 (<b>+36.4%</b>) signant ainsi la plus forte performance annuelle depuis sa création en 2009. Le portefeuille a fait <b>x6 depuis sa création</b> il y a 12 ans (avec une volatilité plus faible que celle du CAC 40).</p><p><u>Quelques graphiques avant le commentaire de gestion :</u></p><p><br /></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8229UOwwBoQSSVmRS6qsHC_Uw6gLSoB7wdMM0ybxn-lMaF84Tir_8DOKRI5pnXQhqqpL-3Ousn7dwsnsxaa6Omk03c6dRFz_L9ytCyqeHKLLfyZUj3OpyLFa7NijsGsP4H6ZC3usvcnDQU0qlI8Dzu2dPwmBZdJKSY9QwYpxpUPl8w-uSbOxQ9WGE9A" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="1075" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8229UOwwBoQSSVmRS6qsHC_Uw6gLSoB7wdMM0ybxn-lMaF84Tir_8DOKRI5pnXQhqqpL-3Ousn7dwsnsxaa6Omk03c6dRFz_L9ytCyqeHKLLfyZUj3OpyLFa7NijsGsP4H6ZC3usvcnDQU0qlI8Dzu2dPwmBZdJKSY9QwYpxpUPl8w-uSbOxQ9WGE9A=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 410px;">
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Période<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Valeur de la part<br />
(base 100)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Performance annuelle<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2009<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">115,97<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">16,0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2010<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">130,23<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">12,3%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2011<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">135,05<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">3,7%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2012<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">166,87<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">23,6%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2013<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">224,76<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">34,7%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2014<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">240,54<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">7,0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.2pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.2pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2015<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.2pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">255,53<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.2pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">6,2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 13.2pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="18" style="border: none; height: 13.2pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2016<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">313,36<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">22,6%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">2017<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">378,14<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">20,7%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">2018<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">369,98<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #9c0006; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">-2,2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">2019<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">453,73<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">22,6%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">2020<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">445,97<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #9c0006; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">-1,7%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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<td height="17" style="border: none; height: 12.55pt;" width="0"></td>
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</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 92.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="123">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 113.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="151">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">608,48<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="bottom" width="125">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;"><span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">36,4%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td style="height: 12.55pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 7.85pt;" width="10"></td>
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</tbody></table><p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlGIoFLD7pRF-MW_gxj-gbqTqJOPrYbTqXy4mIttLkGMzRxryhhjSkAi7S-420Sz0MhQbUPQ11BGSXpfKwW8HzRcjxxT0mSz-4yeR0O8chOIkHJHZkcRTN86Ba0YsCdXWcdtP7Sgs8_r3hJ23nOnWm35X0A5SCo8WQAkQoFESEpnkVC7U6PTYGSCRDGQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="945" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlGIoFLD7pRF-MW_gxj-gbqTqJOPrYbTqXy4mIttLkGMzRxryhhjSkAi7S-420Sz0MhQbUPQ11BGSXpfKwW8HzRcjxxT0mSz-4yeR0O8chOIkHJHZkcRTN86Ba0YsCdXWcdtP7Sgs8_r3hJ23nOnWm35X0A5SCo8WQAkQoFESEpnkVC7U6PTYGSCRDGQ=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><u>Quelques stats :</u></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 399px;">
<tbody><tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Portfolio historical volatility (2021)<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">12,38%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">2021 total return<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">36,44%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Sharp ratio 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">2,86<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Annualized return since inception<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">15,01%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US">Annualized CAC40 return same
period<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">10,33%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Mean Alpha<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">4,67%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Max drawdown 2021<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">-6,17%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #C5D9F1; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 236.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="315">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Max drawdown since inception<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #C5D9F1; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">-28,76%<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p><u>Régression des perfs du portefeuille sur le CAC40 GR (div réinvestis) :</u></p><p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2p4AZ0qABDIUc0l4JZSof-SDWR4K8NSI7b9rerL8ANlIHF-XH-XPTXTV1dLtnp8IDVt9fvtmDbsEpWYYwaU0sGZz5agWyvBuBhvYjjLPmKdvny6vpMEFO3Qrz1mDu_P0A1jT-ZG-dcNPt0Kd5_P63JVQvHcrCmunAOGUOfiGHDagc4GpbnOIXPrkVyQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="1036" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2p4AZ0qABDIUc0l4JZSof-SDWR4K8NSI7b9rerL8ANlIHF-XH-XPTXTV1dLtnp8IDVt9fvtmDbsEpWYYwaU0sGZz5agWyvBuBhvYjjLPmKdvny6vpMEFO3Qrz1mDu_P0A1jT-ZG-dcNPt0Kd5_P63JVQvHcrCmunAOGUOfiGHDagc4GpbnOIXPrkVyQ=w400-h209" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p>Globalement, 72% des perfs du portefeuille s’expliquent par des variations de l’indice (donc provient du beta). Le reste provient principalement de variations idiosyncratiques des actions composant le portefeuille et dépend du stock picking (résultant en un alpha positif en 2021).</p><p> Le beta moyen en 2021 était de 0.74, expliquant en partie la moindre volatilité du portefeuille par rapport au CAC (car le portefeuille est mieux diversifié et il est composé de moins de valeurs cycliques).</p><p><u>Max Drawdown (perte max par rapport au précédent plus haut historique) :</u></p><p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkzX74aXzIChzAMztcC7516hiF5gdIFq0ppoYa9LL-g6BGwqxeysQyNUPKorDUcPslHoXG5KHiaiCERRteMEG3hIeUwGyyd-59DWQRajTvRsYafFxmH446KiR00D6z3FFUNkLxmoRjD8QJwc0Hb2sZPIK4gFZYgfTd_9C_oGmKrxKtkQo0nP7smGYTVg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="1039" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkzX74aXzIChzAMztcC7516hiF5gdIFq0ppoYa9LL-g6BGwqxeysQyNUPKorDUcPslHoXG5KHiaiCERRteMEG3hIeUwGyyd-59DWQRajTvRsYafFxmH446KiR00D6z3FFUNkLxmoRjD8QJwc0Hb2sZPIK4gFZYgfTd_9C_oGmKrxKtkQo0nP7smGYTVg=w400-h183" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p>Le krach de mars 2020 ressort fortement sur le graphique ci-dessus: la valeur du portefeuille avait chuté de -28.8% en quelques semaines. Cette chute représente le max drawdown le plus important depuis la création du portefeuille.</p><p><u>Commentaire de gestion :</u></p><p>Malgré la pandémie, les marchés ont fortement progressé en 2021 sur fond de :</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>taux d’intérêt au ras du sol (justifiant l’expansion des multiples de valorisation),</li><li>poursuite des quantitative-easing + aides gouvernementales de soutien à l’économie (participant au gonflement des valos via les différents flux acheteurs), </li><li>effet « FOMO » sur de nombreuses valeurs tech (certaines ayant été valorisées 50x leur CA par exemple).</li></ol><p>Dans ce contexte, le portefeuille a très bien performé (+36.4%) signant ainsi la plus forte performance annuelle depuis la création du portefeuille en 2009.</p><p><u>La performance 2021 a été boostée par :</u></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>OPA sur Iliad </b>: j’étais long sur les shares ainsi que via l’émission de PUTs afin de me leverager (short PUTs = long delta). Xavier Niel sort ainsi son groupe de la bourse. J’aurais bien aimé rester actionnaire à plus long terme.</li><li><b>OPA sur AKKA Technologies</b>, je fais x2 en 2 mois. La boite me paraissait décotée mais le timing de l’OPA est chanceux.</li><li>Hausse des marchés action de façon générale (récompensant la constance de la stratégie « Buy & Hold » au cœur de la gestion de ce portefeuille : pas de "vente panique" durant la pandémie, mais plusieurs renforcements au contraire).</li></ol><p></p><p><br /></p><p><u>La performance 2021 a été plombée par :</u></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Achats de PUTs en dehors de la monnaie sur Tesla qui n’ont pas performés (je pariais ainsi sur une forte baisse du titre, le « carry » était cher car la vol implicite est très élevée sur ce titre).</li><li>Ventes de calls sur le Dow Jones : je voulais ainsi prendre du theta tout en limitant l’extra de delta de mon portefeuille avec ce macro-hedge (« extra delta » à cause du leverage issu de la vente de PUTs notamment). Je les ai émis à la monnaie pour prendre le plus de valeur temps mais la hausse de l’indice était plus importante que l’amortissement de la valeur temps. J’ai fini par stopper la stratégie en cours d’année. En retrospective j’aurais dû continuer (facile de dire ça car j’écris ces ligne en juin 2022).</li><li>Achats de petites valeurs tech et biotech (en mode FOMO "<i>car ils sont en train de disrupter leur marché</i>")… Trop honte pour citer les noms de ces boites :D Je pense que j’ai vraiment fait une erreur de gestion sur ce point. Cela représentait une toute petite partie du portefeuille mais cela reste une faiblesse de ma part. PS : Je ne classe pas les Meta / Amazon / Alphabet dans cette liste, pour moi ces 3 boites sont excellentes et présentent des niveaux de valo très raisonnables.</li></ol><p></p><p><u><br /></u></p><p><u>Le mot de la fin : </u></p><p>2022 semble mal partie (forte inflation, hausse des taux, guerre en Ukraine, … et tous les indices sont en berne) mais pas de changement stratégique dans la gestion du portefeuille pour autant. L'important est de rester constant et discipliné.</p>AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-2448400349834226812021-12-19T13:12:00.001-08:002021-12-20T00:55:42.313-08:00Investir massivement dans Meta ?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5VcS3fuvXpF2YRGzV6-pW_-K1F7GYQ4uMY6g8t2SB_7950YtUzLLJSHZERnEYUrVpfITOYkjMaXdmxrKOOwd4_8tk08E5Eec9T-z1I9fNyNvxBfAVTKippbwppo56zQqjgVfjawf1qN0YE48DPtTXy4abFbf1HKpYn_rvW1bRJ1IZClLytg9G8kA6RQ=s201" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="201" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5VcS3fuvXpF2YRGzV6-pW_-K1F7GYQ4uMY6g8t2SB_7950YtUzLLJSHZERnEYUrVpfITOYkjMaXdmxrKOOwd4_8tk08E5Eec9T-z1I9fNyNvxBfAVTKippbwppo56zQqjgVfjawf1qN0YE48DPtTXy4abFbf1HKpYn_rvW1bRJ1IZClLytg9G8kA6RQ=w200-h172" width="200" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">On parle de plus en plus de Metaverse et beaucoup considèrent encore qu’il s’agit juste d’une bulle basée sur de la science-fiction.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Vu le titre, vous imaginez que mon point de vue est
différent.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Oui, certaines actions estampillées « Metaverse »
s’échangent à des multiples délirants de 50x leur chiffre d’affaire (surtout
pour des boites sans profits, avec du cash-burn) mais :</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Certaines le méritent peut-être aussi (lorsqu’elles
affichent une croissance de +100% annuel avec une marge brute de 80% et une
position de leader sur une niche. </span></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">D’autres sont déjà profitables et s’échangent à
des multiples vraiment bas compte-tenu de leurs fortes marges et de leur
croissance. Pour moi, c’est notamment le cas de Meta.</span></li></ul><p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Meta c’est quoi au juste ? Il s’agit du groupe de Mark
Zuckerberg qui comprend : Facebook + Instagram + Whatsapp ainsi qu’Oculus
(ce dernier avait été acheté en 2014, il avait de la suite dans les idées !).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p>Ci-dessous, l'évolution du chiffre d'affaire de Facebook (Meta) depuis 2011 (la croissance reste solide) :</o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiMbcW2V5Asvnhs81hWjkJNRPoR4hebVB4yfpEivU9ViYU9SXeokgl0yDHTwq5KIpP5q4uNKQn0LUVyc3BZv9lt63vjDPHTE8k1_ImfpXRGqczHuGj8T-BER_LyLaM1pBxxBqumP4Gc0_rTi2BjM0yAU__XjF_IKMexam0qcC-qH8LkimUgIjHqzQAy0A=s765" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="765" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiMbcW2V5Asvnhs81hWjkJNRPoR4hebVB4yfpEivU9ViYU9SXeokgl0yDHTwq5KIpP5q4uNKQn0LUVyc3BZv9lt63vjDPHTE8k1_ImfpXRGqczHuGj8T-BER_LyLaM1pBxxBqumP4Gc0_rTi2BjM0yAU__XjF_IKMexam0qcC-qH8LkimUgIjHqzQAy0A=w400-h297" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Les raisons de mon engouement pour Meta en quelques
points :<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Meta est déjà un investissement intéressant sans
la partie « Metaverse » : PER de 22 pour une croissance annuelle
supérieure à 30% et de très belles marges (marge brute de 80%, marge
opérationnelle de 40%). Pour moi c’est cheap.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->L’utilisation des casques de réalité virtuelle
est aujourd’hui une réalité, autant pour des usages récréatifs que professionnels.
Bill Gates prévoit que la majorité des meetings professionnels se feront en réalité
virtuelle dans quelques années (je le cite pour indiquer que ce n’est pas juste
un geek illuminé qui balance sa vision sur Twitter). <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Meta a noué un partenariat avec Microsoft dans
ce cadre (on pourra donc probablement accéder aux meetings Teams via un casque
Oculus).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->En termes d’outils de productivité j’ai pu essayer
un outil de création 3D via un casque Oculus c’est impressionant.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Ma conviction est que dans quelques années les Métaverses
vont brasser énormément d’argent avec : <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 72pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Les producteurs de jeux vidéos qui pourront
vendre leurs jeux en « one shot » comme auparavant ou sous la forme d’abonnement
(on verra sûrement un Netflix du jeux vidéo sous la forme d’un abonnement
mensuel pour avoir accès a un grand nombre de jeux différents. L’exemple de l’industrie
musicale avec Spotify montre qu’une fois que l’usage devient mature cela augmente
le chiffre d’affaire du secteur (120€ annuel d’abonnement Spotify vs l’achat de
6 albums par an à 15€ soit 90€ annuel par exemple). Les achats dans les jeux
(skins, armes etc) sera sûrement plus élevés du fait de l’immersion accrue. Certains
jeux seront probablement des machines à cash : imaginez l’addiction
provoquée par l’accès à un magnifique casino (en réalité virtuelle) dans lequel
on est vraiment immergé… Pour une personne vivant loin de ce type d’activités…
Et maintenant imaginez la marge que se ferait ce casino virtuel : plus besoin
de payer les croupiers, les serveurs, l’éclairage, le loyer et l’entretien des
bâtiments et des machines à sous etc…), c’est que du profit !<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 72pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Les designers et les marques qui vendront des vêtement
ou autres objets virtuels sur le Metavers (c’est déjà le cas de Nike, Adidas,
Balenciaga, Gucci et Moncler par exemple).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 72pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Les artistes qui vendront des œuvres sous forme
de NFT (en se baladant dans des galleries d’art virtuelles) que vous pourrez
accrocher dans votre salon virtuel (où vous pouvez inviter vos amis).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 72pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Les architectes et les promoteurs immobiliers
qui pourront présenter leurs projets en immersion totale à leurs clients.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Pour Meta, l’upside de la partie Metaverse est
énorme : en se positionnant comme plateforme de ces nouvelles utilisations
immersives et mondes virtuelles, Meta va pouvoir prendre des frais à différents
niveaux (frais sur chaque transaction, droit d’utilisation de la plateforme
etc).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7)<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->L’obligation d’avoir un compte Facebook pour s’authentifier
sur les casques Oculus Quest peut paraître un désagrément initialement mais cela
va permettre de ramener les jeunes générations sur le (vieux) réseau social (au
lieu d’être juste sur Tik-Tok + Insta + Snap) qui est très rentable également
(avec un ARPU en croissance). Cela crée un cercle vertueux entre les deux
business.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">C’est bien beau tout ça mais pourquoi Meta est si peu chère
actuellement ? La réponse est sans doute dans ces 3 points :<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Facebook a mauvaise presse, pour beaucoup c’est « le
grand méchant loup qui vend vos données au diable ».</li><li>Facebook c’est aussi le nom du vieux réseau
social, c’est pas du tout sexy et donne une impression de déclin face à Tik-Tok notamment.</li><li>Beaucoup pensent qu’une société qui pèse 900 Mds
de dollar peut plus difficilement croître qu’une boîte qui pèse « juste »
1mds en bourse… C’est un long débat mais on pensait la même chose de Microsoft il
y a 10 ans lorsqu’elle était déjà une des plus grosses capitalisation du monde…
depuis elle a fait x10 (bien mieux que la majorité des sociétés pourtant plus
petites). Idem pour Apple ou Amazon. Le principal plafond est psychologique.</li></ol><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<br />
<p class="MsoNormal">En chiffres, Meta c’est :<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">930 Mds de capitalisation (870Mds d’EV car elle
a du cash et pas de dettes).</span></li><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">120 Mds de chiffre d’affaire, en croissance de plus de 30% par an.</span></li><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">40 Mds de résultat net (en phase avec les +38 Mds
de cash-flow opérationnel).</span></li><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Marge brute de 80%, marge nette de 36%.</span></li><li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">L’Oculus, le Metaverse etc c’est que du bonus !</span></li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Ci-dessous, l'évolution des marges de Meta (marge brute, opérationnelle et marge nette en % du chiffre d'affaire):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1EcTC8zpL03ENdi0I-dR6eny-tTlPiUjKysHQX1Y29IdVYjZoSOGkS4dkUnD43ckdoZOkFkLYBU6W_H9Ewv6ffzG1TdXJlUcYpJQIKEIKOmOzGXJtGPllBcLMEPx8iWC51A-gfv35hlp-qW6pRrEAvnaaCgPr5fknAYN4-VHmrZPA81w6kBGsZdYOzQ=s750" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="750" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1EcTC8zpL03ENdi0I-dR6eny-tTlPiUjKysHQX1Y29IdVYjZoSOGkS4dkUnD43ckdoZOkFkLYBU6W_H9Ewv6ffzG1TdXJlUcYpJQIKEIKOmOzGXJtGPllBcLMEPx8iWC51A-gfv35hlp-qW6pRrEAvnaaCgPr5fknAYN4-VHmrZPA81w6kBGsZdYOzQ=w400-h294" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><i><u>Disclaimer :</u> l'auteur de cet article est actionnaire de Meta. Cet article reste une opinion personnelle et ne constitue pas un conseil en investissement.<br /></i><div style="text-indent: -24px;"><br /></div><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-64943117665791980802020-11-05T04:26:00.002-08:002020-11-05T04:26:43.204-08:00SCPI : bientôt la chute ?<p>Placement apprécié des français, les SCPI (Sociétés Civiles de Placement Immobilier) permettent d'investir facilement (à partir de 1 k€ en général) et de façon diversifiée dans l'immobilier de bureaux et commerces.</p><p>Ce placement rassure facilement car il n'y a en général pas de dette au sein de la SCPI et les valorisations sont très lissées (fixée annuellement par la société de gestion). Cela, contrairement aux REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust) et autres Foncières côtées dont la valeur varie chaque jour en fonction du marché. </p><p>Alors quel est le problème ?</p><p><u><br /></u></p><p><u><b>1) Performances décevantes</b></u></p><p>Sur le long terme, l'on pourrait s'attendre à une hausse du dividende des SCPI en phase avec la hausse des loyers sous-jacents. Or si l'on compare les dividendes versés par les SCPI et l'indice ILC (indice des loyers commerciaux) produit par l'INSEE, la différence est flagrante.</p><p>Exemple : la SCPI Immorente versait 15,36€ de dividendes en 2005 vs 15,12€ de dividendes en 2019 (en retranchant les 38cts de dividende exceptionnel versés en 2019). Dans le même temps l'ILC est passé de 92,5 début 2005 à 116,16 fin 2019 soit une hausse de +25,6%. Cette hausse ne se reflète pas dans le dividende.</p><p>Aujourd'hui Immorente propose un taux de Dividende sur valeur de marché autour de 4,3%.</p><p><br /></p><p><u><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSfHfm9Mj2J5BPJ2Py_X4ao0bkFfsNUbRGvCTIjEHPR3BxIyxcivy3UNpxCM7yQ2Wu8cMHDT5iV-G1dWzVrBUvT-qV_FYESI2wOKzRzYfBHnstQRbcH-qUsZIPIaSejLSMHfl7lccmyw1m/s846/Dividendes+SCPI+Immorente.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="846" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSfHfm9Mj2J5BPJ2Py_X4ao0bkFfsNUbRGvCTIjEHPR3BxIyxcivy3UNpxCM7yQ2Wu8cMHDT5iV-G1dWzVrBUvT-qV_FYESI2wOKzRzYfBHnstQRbcH-qUsZIPIaSejLSMHfl7lccmyw1m/s320/Dividendes+SCPI+Immorente.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Extrait du bulletin trimestriel d'immorente (T3-2020)<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><b><br /></b></u></p><p><u><b><br /></b></u></p><p><u><b>2) Poids des frais</b></u></p><p>En général les gestionnaires de SCPI prennent autour de 10% de frais de transaction lorsque vous achetez des parts (inclus dans le prix de la part) et 10% des loyers ensuite.</p><p>Dans l'absolu, ces montants ne sont pas exorbitants étant donné le travail nécessaire à la gestion de ces actifs physiques (recherche de locataires, négociation des baux, acquisitions, entretien du parc immobilier, suivi des contrats avec les différents prestataires et fournisseurs etc).</p><p>Le problème que je vois apparaitre depuis plusieurs années est la tendance pour certaines sociétés de gestion à déléguer cette gestion en faisant acheter à la SCPI des parts d'autres fonds immobiliers (donc gérés par des tiers !</p><p>Or les besoins d'effectifs liés à la gestion d'un actif physique détenu en direct n'est pas du tout la même que celle de la détention d'une part dans un fonds géré par un tiers : dans ce dernier cas, il n'y a qu'a recevoir les dividendes !</p><p>Je remarque cette tendance chez Sofidy (société de gestion) par exemple qui a réalisé 3 acquisition pour Immorente (SCPI) au cours du 3ème trimestre 2020 : ces 3 acquisitions correspondent à des investissements indirects. L'argument de la diversification ne tient pas pour une société comme Immorente qui a une capitalisation de 3,45 Mds d'euros. <br /><br /></p><p><i>(<u>Note:</u> je ne critique pas cette société qui a historiquement fait preuve de son sérieux à travers les cycles, je la prends juste comme un exemple représentatif des pratiques actuelles sur ce marché) </i></p><p><br /></p><p><u><b>2) Poids de la fiscalité</b></u></p><p>Si les SCPI sont détenus en direct, ils sont soumis aux prélèvements sociaux (17,2%) ainsi qu'à votre taux marginal d'imposition. Donc 47,2% d'imposition au total si votre tranche marginale d'imposition est de 30%. Ca devient beaucoup moins intéressant tout d'un coup !</p><p> Il y a néanmoins différentes façons d'alléger cette fiscalité : en passant par une SCI à l'IS par exemple et chacun de ces montages dépendent de votre situation personnelle (TMI, achat des SCPI à crédit ou non, autres biens détenus en direct etc). </p><p>Certains poussent avec du démembrement pour amortir la valeur de l'usufruit dans une société à l'IS (pas d'amortissement possible sinon) et garder la nue propriété en direct. Attention au risque de requalification fiscal pour ce dernier type de montage qui pourrait facilement être qualifié d'abusif par l'administration fiscale (pour éviter toute ambiguïté : <u>je le déconseille</u>).</p><p><br /></p><p><u><b>4) Risques liés au changement de mode de vie</b></u></p><p>Le commerce physique va très mal, ce n'est pas nouveau et le phénomène se renforce avec la croissance de la vente en ligne. La demande de bureaux va être impactée par la généralisation du télétravail... Or quels sont les actifs de la majorité des SCPI ? Des bureaux et des commerces !<br /><br /><br /></p><p><u><b>5) Comparaison avec les foncières côtées</b></u></p><p>Je vous invite a observer l'évolution d'Unibail Rodamco (dont la dette tourne autour de 13x l'EBITDA 2020, laissant aucune place a une valorisation de l'equity), Intu properties (plus grosse foncière UK qui valait 5Mds en 2017 et aujourd'hui en faillite), CBL (REIT de centres commerciaux aux états unis en faillite)... la liste est longue ! La valeur de toutes ces boîtes a baissé de -80% à -100% sur les 2-3 dernières années.</p><p>Bien sûr les REITs et autres Foncières côtées sont plus leveragées, mais lorsqu'on parle d'un LTV (Loan-to-Value) de 50% et que la foncière chute de -99%, c'est que le marché estime que la valeur des actifs a baissé de plus de 50%. La dette "semblait" être maîtrisée chez INTU en 2017 avec 45% de LTV (ratio de dettes sur actifs).</p><p><br /></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm9Nxw0LJpJwmdJm6ROMSfm_6-5ZbrW8uS98rIX66rRITN7tbWYmi8IANx9FoT8zqkuEKIs3zQB7sSaH6a1xHQoO0VkK2RZEUayXb1j2uwn9dF0SuUOVDeGfLcpepT0yAvi3s1LX_CVsc2/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="358" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm9Nxw0LJpJwmdJm6ROMSfm_6-5ZbrW8uS98rIX66rRITN7tbWYmi8IANx9FoT8zqkuEKIs3zQB7sSaH6a1xHQoO0VkK2RZEUayXb1j2uwn9dF0SuUOVDeGfLcpepT0yAvi3s1LX_CVsc2/" width="141" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />Extrait du rapport annuel d'INTU Properties en 2017... en faillite en 2020</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Je rappelle ici que contrairement aux foncières, le prix des parts de SCPI est fixée par leurs sociétés de gestion. Elle n'ont pas intérêt à inquiéter l'épargnant.</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbOuJrllAM0L_0MAFQGB9BX02dwuMuC5kbHmyz9gy2tk1CpxpgbeOWqBjn4s40FSlJJ4ZFFUOA7a7RQuKpPLmrvOWNZ0-fQGlOmVVroaVj9RGmhD-KmLrfw6zIbGEzReVWM3RKem86zb_7/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img data-original-height="312" data-original-width="1327" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbOuJrllAM0L_0MAFQGB9BX02dwuMuC5kbHmyz9gy2tk1CpxpgbeOWqBjn4s40FSlJJ4ZFFUOA7a7RQuKpPLmrvOWNZ0-fQGlOmVVroaVj9RGmhD-KmLrfw6zIbGEzReVWM3RKem86zb_7/w400-h94/image.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Illustration : chute massive de la capitalisation boursière d'Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield et de CBL (désormais en faillite) sur les 2 dernières années</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></p><p><u><b>6) Risque de liquidité</b></u></p><p>Tant qu'il y a plus de souscripteurs de parts de SCPI que de vendeurs, tout va bien. Le capital issu de l'excédent de souscription permet à la SCPI de réaliser de nouveaux achats et tout le monde est content.</p><p>Mais que se passerait-il si les épargnants commençaient à avoir peur d'une baisse des parts ? Les demandes de souscriptions baisseraient et les demandes de retraits augmenteraient considérablement. Dans cette situation, la SCPI devrait revendre des actifs pour honorer ces demandes de retraits. Jusque là tout va bien mais si les autres SCPI sont dans le même processus de ventes (pour les mêmes raisons de demandes de retraits), qui achèteraient leurs actifs ? Les Foncières surendettées ?</p><p><br />Wait & See</p><p><br /></p><p><i><u>Disclaimer:</u> Cet article ne constitue pas un conseil d'achat ou de vente mais juste une opinion personnelle. J'ai revendu mes parts de Immorente et Ficommerce achetées en 2009, je garde encore des parts Corum Origin achetées en 2018 (donc trop récemment pour amortir les frais d'achat).</i></p>AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-51061503106372268272020-09-11T00:18:00.001-07:002020-09-11T02:52:13.187-07:00Bilan 2019 : value trap du retail et ventes de PUTs<p>L'année 2019 a été positive en valeur absolue <b>+22,6%</b> mais présente une performance plus faible que l'indice "CAC 40 dividendes réinvestis" (+31,7%).</p><p>Le couple rendement/risque du portefeuille reste très positif avec un <b>ratio de sharpe à 1.8</b>.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidniBpwI-4T9rMRvqHrnV1iRXHyPstn8lO2u7Cqf3ZoWEt9SyKH_h9u8hvIpGV7KonTk-rQfRayB-MOHLVqyRCT0uOELatAIzRxxBHFmSYGvNGFMIBCkPOdhqnGZRmO18qbYDYBCbrKK-P/s875/2019+-+perf+portfolio+against+CAC+div+-+graph.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="875" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidniBpwI-4T9rMRvqHrnV1iRXHyPstn8lO2u7Cqf3ZoWEt9SyKH_h9u8hvIpGV7KonTk-rQfRayB-MOHLVqyRCT0uOELatAIzRxxBHFmSYGvNGFMIBCkPOdhqnGZRmO18qbYDYBCbrKK-P/w500-h249/2019+-+perf+portfolio+against+CAC+div+-+graph.png" width="500" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Et voici les performances année après année depuis la création du portefeuille:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir7PFi11OjU-2mZrGst3lGfTtDNKPGAnQn_O8ZkMk3t6kJskn1sE2UwYDndf9Xs685034XpK9ahuLaCPT71s_UVuYAUXC7bEsArLuto-nxbBFR162euu9cWvyUyGyMl0Qo_XClGP1ZV1FF/s439/2019+-+perf+portfolio+tableau.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="308" data-original-width="439" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir7PFi11OjU-2mZrGst3lGfTtDNKPGAnQn_O8ZkMk3t6kJskn1sE2UwYDndf9Xs685034XpK9ahuLaCPT71s_UVuYAUXC7bEsArLuto-nxbBFR162euu9cWvyUyGyMl0Qo_XClGP1ZV1FF/s320/2019+-+perf+portfolio+tableau.png" width="320" /></a></div><b><u><p><b><u><br /></u></b></p>Mes erreurs en 2019:</u></b><p></p><p>J'ai été attiré par des valeurs qui apparaissaient massacrée (le retail) dont personne ne voulait avoir en portefeuille (gros titres de presse annonçant la mort du retail chaque semaine). Ce qui s'est révélé être une "value trap". </p><p>J'ai ainsi perdu des deux côté de l'atlantique sur ce secteur: sur des foncières de centre commerciaux comme CBL qui se payait 1 à 2x le FFO avec un LTV autour de 50% <u>officiellement (</u>ne jamais faire confiance aux "évaluations d'experts"<u>)</u> et Orchestra en France dont l'equity se payait 5% du CA mais qui était plombée de dettes et avec des problèmes de gouvernance...</p><p>Dans ce secteur globalement sinistré j'avais aussi des parts dans Foot Locker, H&M, Lippo Malls (centres commerciaux en indonésie, côtée à Singapour)... qui ont également plombé la performance du portefeuille.</p><p><u><b>Mes succès en 2019:</b></u></p><p>Du côté des bonnes opérations, j'ai pu optimiser la performance du portefeuille grâce à ma stratégie d'émissions de PUTs. Au lieu de placer un ordre "limit" en dessous du prix d'une action, j'émets une option de vente dessus (je touche donc la prime et je suis en Theta positif) et j'attends. </p><p>Si l'action chute, je convertis le PUT en titres vifs (j'économise alors l'équivalent de la prime par rapport à un ordre "limit" que j'aurais pu placer).</p><p>Si l'action monte, je garde la prime (je ne participe donc pas à la hausse de l'action mais je n'aurais pas été exécuté non plus si j'avais placé un ordre limite "radin").</p><p>En pratique: </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>j'émets uniquement sur des titres "solides", ce qui est très important dans cette stratégie où le downside (-100%) est bien plus important que l'upside (+10%). </li><li>j'émets à la monnaie (ATM) pour prendre le plus de "valeur temps" possible.</li><li>j'émets à des horizon de 8-12 mois pour prendre une prime valant autour de 10% de l'action (si l'action monte, je me console avec 10% sans avoir déboursé le moindre centime).</li></ul><div>Ce qui est impressionnant dans cette stratégie c'est le fait de recevoir de l'argent (la prime) dès le départ et d'être payé pour attendre. Cette somme peut d'ailleurs être déployée dans d'autres investissements en parallèle. </div><div><br /></div><div>Par contre il faut toujours regarder le downside en face. Pour un investisseur "value", cette stratégie ne doit être déployée que sur des valeurs pour lesquelles nous serions heureux de voir chuter afin de prendre une plus grosse part du gâteau. Warren Buffet a longtemps utilisé cette stratégie pour doper sa performance.</div><div><br /></div><div>J'ai ainsi émis sur des titres comme Iliad et Michelin qui me paraissaient solides (bonne récurrence de cash flows, bilans solides...) et en dessous de leur valeur intrinsèque. J'ai ainsi pu doper la performance du portefeuille de +2% (ce qui correspond à 9% des +22,6% de 2019).</div><div><br /></div><div>J'ai également pris des parts dans des sociétés comme Swatch et Richemont qui disposent d'un portefeuille de marques exceptionnel, disposent d'un bilan solide et de bonnes marges. L'allocation de capital chez Swatch n'est vraiment pas optimale (beaucoup de cash non utilisé, un rachat d'actions serait fortement relutif) et Richemont dispose de meilleures marges. Cela ressort également dans leurs multiples de valorisation respectifs.</div><div><br /></div><div>Enfin, devant le positionnement stratégique incroyable que détiennent Amazon, Facebook et Alphabet, je me suis résolu à prendre des participations dans ces sociétés. Oui leurs multiples de valorisation sont très élevés mais leur croissance est également gigantesque. Ces sociétés ont aujourd'hui un tel poids dans nos vie qu'elles paraissent réellement indétronable. Le "moat" cher à Warren Buffett est bien présent. Egalement, leur croissance n'est pas limitée à leur secteurs respectifs : elles avancent dans le secteur de la banque, de l'assurance, de la santé... de vrais bulldozers que l'on ne peut ignorer sous prétexte d'un PER actuel élevé.</div><p></p>AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-66513043067652166922018-02-11T09:09:00.000-08:002018-02-11T09:09:33.024-08:00Bilan 2017 : +21%... La routine quoi !<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
La performance 2017 s’établit à +20,67%. C’est bien mieux
que le CAC40 (dividendes réinvestis) qui a fait +12,7% dans ce même temps. Le
portefeuille a bénéficié de la hausse globale des multiples de valorisation
ainsi que de différents événements comme l’OPA sur ETAM et la hausse sur Foot
Locker.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Depuis la création du portefeuille en février 2009, la
performance moyenne est de +16,25% par an (moyenne géométrique). En parallèle,
le CAC40 dividendes réinvestis affiche +10,25%. L’alpha du portefeuille est
donc de +6% annuel… 600 points de base ! En termes statistiques, l’écart
est vraiment considérable (surtout que le portefeuille est impacté négativement par rapport à ce benchmark par les frais de transaction, les retenues à la source sur les dividendes etc).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Autre satisfaction, la volatilité du portefeuille reste relativement
faible : 9% (vol 2017 annualisée) ce qui donne un ratio de sharpe de 2,16.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Voici l’évolution de la valeur d’une part (base 100 à la
création en 2009) :<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOg52xy0zXwVrrDbHJH4PhXyrlIN96jnllKu_hZDAF8s5N8dEBprTQG4S0dshWqxDFIs8Z1pDrOvhTPCCRhhEM4rgkCkZiEsaD9xfINXyQuaiR6yZibWbwmMgdHPVI_qPUWVvdHFKIlyLq/s1600/Portfolio+vs+CAC40+dividendes+r%25C3%25A9investis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="1127" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOg52xy0zXwVrrDbHJH4PhXyrlIN96jnllKu_hZDAF8s5N8dEBprTQG4S0dshWqxDFIs8Z1pDrOvhTPCCRhhEM4rgkCkZiEsaD9xfINXyQuaiR6yZibWbwmMgdHPVI_qPUWVvdHFKIlyLq/s400/Portfolio+vs+CAC40+dividendes+r%25C3%25A9investis.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Les opportunités se font rares. Je me suis penché sur le
secteur du retail US qui a été massacré tout au long de l’année à New
York et j’ai donc acheté quelques titres dans ce sens. Il s’agit de Reits
de centres commerciaux comme CBL qui plombe actuellement la performance et se
vend moins de 3 fois son FFO et de retailers comme Foot Locker et Bed Bath and
Beyond (je note un aller-retour sur GUESS ayant généré +17% en une semaine).
J’ai également acquis quelques parts de REITs hôtelières comme AHP et sa grande
sœur AHT qui me paraissent peu chères compte tenu des actifs sous-jacents.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Egalement j’ai initié une petite position short sur Tesla
(achat d’un Put) qui était valorisé 55 Mds USD alors qu’elle brûle du cash et
qu’elle a une dette de l’ordre de 22 Mds. Les fans oublient parfois que Tesla n’est pas la seule société à
produire des véhicules électriques. Elle survit actuellement grâce à une
certaine inventivité financière : le cash des pré-commandes, la vente de
créances gagées par des véhicules (montages type ABS) etc. J’en profite pour
saluer Elon Musk dont le parcours et la détermination forcent l’admiration (je
suis un grand fan du CEO, mais pas de la valorisation de Tesla). Bravo pour le
lancement et l’atterrissage du Falcon Heavy !!!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
De façon plus classique, j’ai acheté des parts de la société
BIC qui présente des marges solides et peu cycliques ainsi qu’un bilan des plus
solides (pas de dettes). Cela fait longtemps que cette valeur m’intéresse et le
retour à une valorisation raisonnable m’a poussé à y mettre un premier pied.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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+nMam15mhojGbEbWL7y7svMCUDFEaep3g0oxHR0A3RAQO9Fm4Jrx6AAlfN695SPxQzuywBTGCF3h
XFTwaHQzpXGirtgbvLNmR4JlN8ccvC54t3/pliYcwOuyVs5QqTO3LL269h7gA/M5TAcFgffmjpT7
t67Gf3FxWxV3b2CMNPYZTPDGIHhz/FCB0vi5ZWSnbrlR1COkPLczTzDOFsxy+qx/8vSg9jsRVk3/
Mj7Yl5gu6TldM7NXKGGsw+671UrCwGNebZgLugmO8TctVdX1loJf5qw7AYT2qIDGE3gO/Rtl/T+C
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ZSWbOfxxupPndhqCkjWw6rZyAYjKdzBAQnU8Qraf2YF++k8UvcAKOwJG7pkrrkrzsmhifWz0n7VD
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AAAAAAAAW0NvbnRlbnRfVHlwZXNdLnhtbFBLAQItABQABgAIAAAAIQCtMD/xwQAAADIBAAALAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAEcBAABfcmVscy8ucmVsc1BLAQItABQABgAIAAAAIQCcTl4h4gYAADocAAAaAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAADECAABjbGlwYm9hcmQvdGhlbWUvdGhlbWUxLnhtbFBLAQItABQABgAIAAAAIQAv
dDcseAEAABkEAAAfAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEsJAABjbGlwYm9hcmQvZHJhd2luZ3MvZHJhd2luZzEu
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ANYBAAAmAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABYMAABjbGlwYm9hcmQvY2hhcnRzL19yZWxzL2NoYXJ0MS54bWwu
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" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" style="height: 195.75pt; visibility: visible; width: 454.5pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:\Users\Mehdi\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image002.png">
<o:lock aspectratio="f" v:ext="edit">
</o:lock></v:imagedata></v:shape><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Le max-drawdown 2017 (perte maximale constatée) est de
-3,6%, le max-drawdown depuis la création du portefeuille est de -16,8%.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Comme indiqué l’année dernière, il ne faut pas se laisser
aveugler par cette belle série de performances positives. Le risque est toujours là. Je garde à l’esprit qu’une
baisse de 30% ou plus est bien possible dans les années qui viennent. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 3.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 324px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 42.8pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" width="141">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Période<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" width="86">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Valeur de la part <br />
(base 100)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" width="97">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Performances annuelles<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2017<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
378,14<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">20,67%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2016<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
313,36<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">22,63%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2015<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
255,53<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6,23%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2014<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
240,54<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7,02%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2013<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
224,76<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">34,69%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2012<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
166,87<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">23,56%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2011<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
135,05<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3,70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2010<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
130,23<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12,29%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2009 (sur 11 mois)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
115,97<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15,97%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Disclaimer AMF : les performances passées ne présagent pas
des performances futures, ceci est un simple rapport de gestion d'un
portefeuille personnel et ne saurait constituer un quelconque conseil en
investissement.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-22844411500906887742017-11-14T14:59:00.001-08:002017-11-14T14:59:08.480-08:00Carnage sur le retail US<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFHD_0wgF7KagW25Ah8cwNM0K-rkP-1dLArknbQMkuIZyUSo48ZvO-MgjgoDFtcEDCwoGqMagvdYZGltLxq5KZewE5wvHYA4g16ROTRiy_zlPmunIM_7GMoid3a8Djia_N7oB0HjHHqOt5/s1600/black+friday+bourse+investir+centres+commerciaux.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="1226" height="111" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFHD_0wgF7KagW25Ah8cwNM0K-rkP-1dLArknbQMkuIZyUSo48ZvO-MgjgoDFtcEDCwoGqMagvdYZGltLxq5KZewE5wvHYA4g16ROTRiy_zlPmunIM_7GMoid3a8Djia_N7oB0HjHHqOt5/s200/black+friday+bourse+investir+centres+commerciaux.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Régulièrement, un secteur entier de l'économie tombe en
disgrâce auprès des investisseurs.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
À une réalité défavorable s'ajoutent généralement des
facteurs psychologiques comme :</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>La focalisation sur la situation à court terme</li>
<li>Le renforcement du comportement grégaire car nos vieux réflexes ressurgissent en situation de stress => suivi de tendance moutonnier</li>
<li>Le renforcement de l'aversion au risque et l'utilisation des cours boursiers comme confirmation de la gravité de la situation sous-jacente.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tout cela est exacerbé par l'impact médiatique via la
répétition du même sujet et l'utilisation de mots forts comme « Retail
apocalypse ».<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ce fut le cas du secteur des matières premières fin 2015.
Glencore était valorisé autour de 10 Mds GBP contre 52 Mds GBP aujourd'hui et
Rio Tinto a connu un parcours similaire bien que moins impressionnant
(structure capitalistique plus conservatrice). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Aujourd'hui il s’agit du retail US. La valorisation des chaines
de distribution physiques ainsi que
celle des REITS de centres commerciaux a été massacrée ces derniers temps.
J'aime suivre l'adage "Buy when there is blood in the streets" et là,
je dois dire que l'on est face à un carnage !<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
L’aversion au secteur s’appuie sur deux éléments :</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>Amazon prend des parts de marché énormes et comprime les marges du secteur (double effet : volume + marges)</li>
<li>L’offre de boutiques physiques et centres commerciaux américains est considérée comme excessive (en termes de m² de surface commerciale par habitant, relativement à d’autres pays)</li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ces deux points sont justes mais pas nouveaux non plus. La
difficulté est d’évaluer le juste impact de ces éléments.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Observons ces sociétés en question et la façon dont le
marché les valorise :<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 3.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 6.05pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #366092; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B050; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">EV/EBITDA<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B050; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">EV/EBIT<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B050; height: 6.05pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">PER<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; height: 6.05pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">EBIT margin<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 6.05pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Foot Locker<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>2,59<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>2,99<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>5,94<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
13,0%<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 6.05pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Bed Bath & Beyond<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>2,68<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>3,36<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>4,07<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
9,3%<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 6.05pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
L Brands<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>6,90<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>8,99<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<b>11,74<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 6.05pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
15,9%<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Cours du 8 novembre 2017, bilan du dernier trimestre et
dernière année fiscale pour le compte de résultat)</span></i><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je reste frappé par la faiblesse de ces multiples. Surtout
concernant Foot Locker qui détient plus d’un milliard de dollars en trésorerie
(pas de dettes financières) et qui garde encore de belles marges. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Avec un bilan aussi solide, des cash flows récurrents et une faible valorisation, elle
constituerait ainsi une très belle cible pour un montage LBO !<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv4ULo-2X9fg_bsD7u5mgUZTHcfkF5ZCPsEoFqTFcgO9SDhkIxDm9YIrYFAy2r3Kad1CbpSfaT1iRLe6nSvXBJYf97wi7EPRgr5KYJitaDGTRXfpSacCYhX1RGo1MAh2sglN2m7ptsXSjT/s1600/Cours+Foot+Locker+fl+bourse+action+10+ans.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1366" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv4ULo-2X9fg_bsD7u5mgUZTHcfkF5ZCPsEoFqTFcgO9SDhkIxDm9YIrYFAy2r3Kad1CbpSfaT1iRLe6nSvXBJYf97wi7EPRgr5KYJitaDGTRXfpSacCYhX1RGo1MAh2sglN2m7ptsXSjT/s320/Cours+Foot+Locker+fl+bourse+action+10+ans.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cours de l'action Foot Locker</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h2>
Rachats d’actions<o:p></o:p></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Il est à noter que BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond) et Foot
Locker rachètent leurs actions massivement. Cela, au rythme de 400 MUSD par an
pour Foot Locker tandis que le nombre d’actions en circulation de BBBY est
passé de 189 millions fin 2014 à 143 millions aujourd’hui soit une réduction de
25% du nombre de titres en circulation en 3 ans !<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7x54FN7aMdTHZwNTlAXcnT5koBX7J6d3PKpjrB4dzvR5PhXMLCQRFvMi4l4614cJyKCbbXSXoPkIYjnzGJN5fmXRWMY4uhyphenhyphenL9nseTEKu9kJkRnEBjLbOhwbCg3JOofXhOtDWo_6lXdJpB/s1600/Cours+BBBY+NYSE+Bed+Bath+and+beyond+bourse+action+10+ans.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1366" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7x54FN7aMdTHZwNTlAXcnT5koBX7J6d3PKpjrB4dzvR5PhXMLCQRFvMi4l4614cJyKCbbXSXoPkIYjnzGJN5fmXRWMY4uhyphenhyphenL9nseTEKu9kJkRnEBjLbOhwbCg3JOofXhOtDWo_6lXdJpB/s320/Cours+BBBY+NYSE+Bed+Bath+and+beyond+bourse+action+10+ans.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cours de l'action BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Voici également quelques chiffres clés (montants en k USD) :<o:p></o:p></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 3.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 631px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 27.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #366092; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Stock Price<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mkt Cap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Financial
Debt<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Cash &
Equivalent<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Entreprise
Value<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Sales
Turnover<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">EBITDA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Operating
Profit (EBIT)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #366092; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 27.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Net Income<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Foot Locker<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
29,88<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
3 944 160<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
126 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 043 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
3 027 160<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
7 766 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 170 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 012 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
664 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Bed Bath & Beyond<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
19,49<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
2 791 778<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 491 836<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
464 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
3 819 614<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
12 215 757<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 426 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 135 210<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
685 108<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
L Brands<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
47,38<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
13 590 479<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
5 767 899<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 360 253<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
17 998 125<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
12 574 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
2 608 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
2 003 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt;" valign="bottom">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
1 158 000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Cours du 8 novembre 2017, bilan du dernier trimestre et dernière année fiscale pour le compte de résultat)</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Concernant les REITS de centres commerciaux, c’est également
l’hécatombe. Je citerai CBL qui s’échange à moins de 3x son FFO (Funds From
Operations) et détient 119 propriétés dont 63 centres commerciaux.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Le risque est loin d’être nul étant donné le poids de la dette
(4,2 Mds USD de dettes pour 7,5 Mds d’actifs en valeur comptable avant
amortissement). La baisse constatée des loyers lors des relocations et le coût
de réaménagement des centres commerciaux sont loin d'être négligeables. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Enfin, nous constatons également que de nombreuses propriétés sont "rendues" au prêteur (le détenteur du mortgage devient propriétaire du centre commercial et la dette non-recourse s'éteint). Cela n'est pas très rassurant car cela signifie que CBL était en "négative equity" sur les centres commerciaux en question. Néanmoins le ratio risk/return me
parait rester positif dans le contexte d’un portefeuille diversifié.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxuZPUs65qNkBw3kqSyoyFq_idw-UwihuSBf0KU0CnxTu58fQsu36dXHmWQUXRnpt5-pi2Z32LdC5dwBXqPLAXvJ3xgGIWILYP1BzbPxvpQA5xLPyt3hUAfo_wgmCBjI5wxy5SRY-ZHPJG/s1600/Cours+CBL+NYSE+REIT+real+estate+investment+bourse+action+10+ans.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1366" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxuZPUs65qNkBw3kqSyoyFq_idw-UwihuSBf0KU0CnxTu58fQsu36dXHmWQUXRnpt5-pi2Z32LdC5dwBXqPLAXvJ3xgGIWILYP1BzbPxvpQA5xLPyt3hUAfo_wgmCBjI5wxy5SRY-ZHPJG/s320/Cours+CBL+NYSE+REIT+real+estate+investment+bourse+action+10+ans.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">Cours boursier de l'action CBL<br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
L’action CBL s’échange actuellement pour 5,5 USD pour 80 cts
de dividende annuel (4 x 20 cts) et 2,08 USD de FFO. Cela donne 14,5% de
dividendes "protégés" par un payout ratio de 38% seulement.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Les prochaines années nous diront si il s'agissait de réelles opportunités ou de "value-traps". En attendant, je suis la maxime : <i>"Buy When There is Blood in The Streets"</i> !</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><u>AMF :</u> Je suis récemment devenu actionnaire de Foot Locker, CBL, L Brands et BBBY. Je ne compte pas vendre ces actions dans les prochaines 48h, il
est possible que je fasse des transactions à l’achat. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Cet article ne saurait constituer une quelconque recommandation,
il ne s’agit que d’une opinion personnelle et il revient au lecteur de vérifier
la véracité des chiffres présentés. </i><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-26783233529223984652017-06-08T06:33:00.000-07:002017-07-27T14:32:59.120-07:00ETAM : une OPA décevante<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_Q0PAUJv5iN4RIvG16mKXDUwDd2I5Hyg_aEZjEBIRTNj1ZF3PWvUZjHRW3oMq_N0Hocen_O54p1bD1eZfmtOMW9k6CwhymIITgt-ouSZ-gzLKE9WlGm8jgtJ9aqG08tdfDyoeNx7rTSQ/s1600/OPA+ETAM+actionnaires+minoritaires.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="744" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_Q0PAUJv5iN4RIvG16mKXDUwDd2I5Hyg_aEZjEBIRTNj1ZF3PWvUZjHRW3oMq_N0Hocen_O54p1bD1eZfmtOMW9k6CwhymIITgt-ouSZ-gzLKE9WlGm8jgtJ9aqG08tdfDyoeNx7rTSQ/s200/OPA+ETAM+actionnaires+minoritaires.png" width="200" /></a></div>
Chers co-actionnaires d'ETAM,<br />
<br />
Nous venons d'être informés du lancement d'une OPA simplifiée sur ETAM. Il est prévu que cette OPA soit suivie d'un retrait obligatoire de la côte.<br />
<br />
L'offre pourrait sembler intéressante à un novice qui se laisserait éblouir par la prime de +53,8% sur le dernier cours de bourse. Or, une analyse sérieuse donnerait une valorisation plus proche de 80-90€ par titre (contre 49,30€ proposés) !<br />
<br />
Je suis actionnaire depuis septembre 2011. J'aime cette belle entreprise et je félicite la famille dirigeante pour avoir conduit une stratégie de développement saine et ambitieuse avec brio. Cependant, je désapprouve le prix offert actuellement.<br />
<br />
Je vous propose de nous réunir afin d'assurer la protection de nos intérêts et demander à ce que l'offre soit ajustée à une valeur mieux représentative des fondamentaux d'ETAM DEVELOPPEMENT.<br />
<br />
Un rapport d'analyse sur ETAM incluant une valorisation par comparables et DCF est en cours de réalisation de mon côté. Cette analyse pourra être jointe à un courrier en préparation également à destination de l'AMF.<br />
<br />
Afin d'avoir plus de poids auprès des différents intervenants, je vous invite à me contacter par email (<a href="mailto:mehdi.meziane8@gmail.com">mehdi.meziane8@gmail.com</a>) en m'indiquant le nombre d'actions détenues. Le flottant est faible alors chaque action compte !<br />
<br />
Cette page sera mise à jour au fur et à mesure des prochains développements et je vous tiendrai au courant par email.<br />
<br />
En nous souhaitant à tous que l'offre soit ajustée à la<b> juste valeur</b> de cette belle entreprise en pleine croissance.<br />
<br />
Mehdi MEZIANE<br />
Actionnaire minoritaire d'ETAM depuis 2011<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
-----------------------</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Liens :<br />
- <a href="http://www.etamdeveloppement.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Communiqu%C3%A9-dannonce-_07.06.17.pdf">Communiqué d'ETAM projet d'OPA</a><br />
<br />
- <a href="https://www.devenir-rentier.fr/uploads2/1967_lettre_amf_etam_v3.pdf">Lettre destinée à l'AMF</a><br />
<br />
- <a href="http://www.etamdeveloppement.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Etam-D%C3%A9veloppement-Note-OPAS-en-r%C3%A9ponse-projet-30-juin-2017.pdf">Projet d'OPAS incluant l'attestation d'équité</a><br />
<br />
- <a href="https://www.devenir-rentier.fr/uploads2/1967_conformite_offre_finora_etam_18_juillet_2017.pdf">Déclaration de conformité par l'AMF</a><br />
<br /></div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-28404632437307814722017-05-01T08:52:00.001-07:002017-05-01T09:04:49.904-07:00Bilan 2016 : Le portefeuille a fait x3 en 8 ans<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsBxYMxiv2RLu4PQMkrmQVKMGKHERs7AURQe8nOOAmxM4kh8rcPUsa12fjLAMdwEN-qztTHDQ5hiBaqj6geyr1v4iESzN8jXbuPJB4FBwFJ_0SE-rlO23-HiKf8WmcrdTm5mTJmDMx3A-/s1600/pi+perf+8+ans+portefeuille.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsBxYMxiv2RLu4PQMkrmQVKMGKHERs7AURQe8nOOAmxM4kh8rcPUsa12fjLAMdwEN-qztTHDQ5hiBaqj6geyr1v4iESzN8jXbuPJB4FBwFJ_0SE-rlO23-HiKf8WmcrdTm5mTJmDMx3A-/s200/pi+perf+8+ans+portefeuille.png" width="200" /></a></div>
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C’est avec plaisir que je vous annonce que le portefeuille
est désormais un « three-bagger » (*) ! En effet, la valeur de la part a
été multipliée par plus de 3 depuis la création du portefeuille en 2009. </div>
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<i>(*) Un "X-bagger" est une expression pour parler d'une société dont le cours se retrouve multiplié par "X", il existe donc des 2-baggers, 100-baggers voir même des 1000-baggers (Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Wal-Mart...). Ici, utiliser Pi donnerait une meilleure approximation de la performance car le portefeuille a fait x3,13 et on pourrait donc parler d'un "Pi-bagger" ! </i></div>
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La performance
2016 s’établit à +22,63%.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Voici l’évolution de la valeur d’une part (base 100 à la
création en 2009) :<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtDzxcF4iu-VmCACVGuNspYbwQINhWjnYKrZ5r-syspWmTD87goKvd6J0EMv6k3iFTWxxjN3LB7YamCjdAf0P6KA9dh2rPNEtxfv-i8VygmpVCucRVI0zNGzJFtoT9Ot3lhLbyP7DujfKC/s1600/Evolution+portefeuille+2009-2016+actions+bourse+value+investing.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtDzxcF4iu-VmCACVGuNspYbwQINhWjnYKrZ5r-syspWmTD87goKvd6J0EMv6k3iFTWxxjN3LB7YamCjdAf0P6KA9dh2rPNEtxfv-i8VygmpVCucRVI0zNGzJFtoT9Ot3lhLbyP7DujfKC/s400/Evolution+portefeuille+2009-2016+actions+bourse+value+investing.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
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L’année 2016 a été nettement marquée par le rebond des
matières premières. J’ai pu notamment investir dans Rio Tinto en début d’année
2016 à 1671 GBp (contre 3158 GBp au 30 décembre 2016), lorsque le pessimisme sur le secteur minier était à son paroxysme.</div>
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<br /></div>
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J'ai également profité d'une petite faiblesse sur le cours de LVMH pour en prendre autour de 134 € cet été (contre 181 € au 30 décembre 2016). Je n'attend rien d'exceptionnel de cette valeur qui contribue à équilibrer le portefeuille. On remarquera qu'il est toujours difficile pour un investisseur "value" d'investir dans des valeurs liées au luxe (PER généralement élevés, beaucoup d'intangibles dans la valorisation, popularité de ces valeurs auprès des investisseurs...). Bref, je l'ai fait et j'assume :-) .</div>
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Voici un histogramme des performances annuelles :</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_QuHvIs6gNM0kReoKQVSkg8yPEIWlPG4gpMQ7s0UEdTPCbmHRFJdqb9CY2J6sSe2cWR-jQTPy2GrynAJXUO6dpQZon7mqf-nUzuWTujBRkUhFzv6935-I72e04zFzTit5CkeVBQrWbnm/s1600/Perfs+annuelles+portefeuille+actions+obligations+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_QuHvIs6gNM0kReoKQVSkg8yPEIWlPG4gpMQ7s0UEdTPCbmHRFJdqb9CY2J6sSe2cWR-jQTPy2GrynAJXUO6dpQZon7mqf-nUzuWTujBRkUhFzv6935-I72e04zFzTit5CkeVBQrWbnm/s400/Perfs+annuelles+portefeuille+actions+obligations+2016.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Il ne faut pas se laisser aveugler par cette belle série de
performances positives. Le risque est
toujours là. Je garde à l’esprit qu’une baisse de 30% ou plus est bien
possible dans les années qui viennent, sans même parler d’un black-Swan. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
La croissance de la dette publique, le levier utilisé par les banques (entre x25 et x30 juste en se basant sur les ratio de levier officiels) et la taille du bilan de la BCE restent de lourdes épées de Damoclès au dessus de nos petits portefeuilles. Jusqu'ici tout va bien.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Je
rappelle que ces performances ont été obtenues sans effet de levier, sans
produits dérivés (ou de façon vraiment très marginale pour être tout à fait exact)
et avec un faible turnover (approche long-terme basée sur les fondamentaux). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 3.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 324px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 42.8pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" width="141"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Période<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" width="86"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Valeur de la part <br />
(base 100)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 42.8pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" width="97"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
Performances annuelles<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2016<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
313,36<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">22,63%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2015<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
255,53<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">6,23%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2014<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
240,54<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">7,02%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2013<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
224,76<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">34,69%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2012<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
166,87<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">23,56%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2011<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
135,05<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">3,70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2010<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
130,23<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">12,29%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 105.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="141"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
2009 (sur 10 mois)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 64.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="86"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
115,97<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.25pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 3.5pt 0cm 3.5pt; width: 72.55pt;" valign="bottom" width="97"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #00b050; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">15,97%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Disclaimer AMF : les performances passées ne présagent pas
des performances futures, ceci est un simple rapport de gestion d'un
portefeuille personnel et ne saurait constituer un quelconque conseil en
investissement.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-27135598205350960572016-06-19T10:58:00.000-07:002016-06-19T10:58:51.693-07:00L'Âge du fer<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0riKcMLXP8Hs_v70nbH55nbvv5rAfsYQTFnUzi1YJyjjt8nmg6bjFivZSOlLxXCF3RpQo3YW8rGyiYLp75Au8U1HKsSfM1XPjvEqwyTJUgwZQW5Q2U2zKj-HZTEcEx8r0-84VgV9VEZtT/s1600/camion+autonome+%25C3%25A0+Pilbara.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0riKcMLXP8Hs_v70nbH55nbvv5rAfsYQTFnUzi1YJyjjt8nmg6bjFivZSOlLxXCF3RpQo3YW8rGyiYLp75Au8U1HKsSfM1XPjvEqwyTJUgwZQW5Q2U2zKj-HZTEcEx8r0-84VgV9VEZtT/s320/camion+autonome+%25C3%25A0+Pilbara.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Camions autonomes, région de Pilbara, Australie.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nécessaire à la production de l’acier qui est utilisé
massivement par le BTP et dans le secteur automobile, le minerai de fer est une
des ressources clé de notre quotidien. Chaque jour, une poignée de géants
extrait cette matière première par millions de tonnes, 24h/24, 7 jours sur 7. Inlassablement.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Le ballet logistique de camions autonomes, de wagons et de
vraquiers répond à une réalité économique implacable. Dans ce business,
chaque centime économisé sur la production et l’acheminement d’une tonne de
minerai correspond à un gain se comptant en millions de dollars en fin d’année.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quatre géants se partagent 61% du marché. Il s'agit de Rio Tinto
(19%), du brésilien Vale (17%), de BHP Biliton (15%) et de Fortescue Metal Group. La
concentration du secteur se renforce actuellement au grand dam des producteurs
marginaux qui se voient contraints de sortir du marché. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBtyFC4J1O-2JfcRe-09ef9sC-0j689ChGo_CTGFWZ0cmYvll7ejO5QFqtSSEkc4PFfoxnMpY1DodMVuY1Ym7kE6HtYgdlYnKCHEP45E_KHDlLgCFGRDpBGCfRAZ6sSQP6drPnK3BF20Ot/s1600/Global+iron+ore+market+shares.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBtyFC4J1O-2JfcRe-09ef9sC-0j689ChGo_CTGFWZ0cmYvll7ejO5QFqtSSEkc4PFfoxnMpY1DodMVuY1Ym7kE6HtYgdlYnKCHEP45E_KHDlLgCFGRDpBGCfRAZ6sSQP6drPnK3BF20Ot/s320/Global+iron+ore+market+shares.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Parts de marché du minerai de fer (cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
En effet, le cours du minerai de fer est passé en dessous du
coût de production de nombreuses sociétés minières (celles se situant dans le dernier quartile en termes de coûts de production). Il va sans dire que ces
sociétés se sont donc retrouvées dans une situation financière délicate.
Certaines ont déjà déposé le bilan et d’autres « s’agrippent du bout des
ongles » pour reprendre l’expression de Sam Walsh (CEO de Rio Tinto). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKMSG81LeFwA6Ok5wzD0loQ-VsaNFMNFNaBOXtWew23jXgx8nusM2slaTcQXR2xlyAM_Wrz-i84YnhgZrFvjIR29vm92zPEggwNm5RoR80bZvXK8kjZ8yiPWUjcGOFLrlaDwdDGV7SS9Oj/s1600/Iron+ore+spot+chart+10y+minerai+de+fer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKMSG81LeFwA6Ok5wzD0loQ-VsaNFMNFNaBOXtWew23jXgx8nusM2slaTcQXR2xlyAM_Wrz-i84YnhgZrFvjIR29vm92zPEggwNm5RoR80bZvXK8kjZ8yiPWUjcGOFLrlaDwdDGV7SS9Oj/s320/Iron+ore+spot+chart+10y+minerai+de+fer.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cours du minerai de fer sur 10 ans (cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
L’Australie et le Brésil sont les plus gros exportateurs de
minerai de fer. Ce minerai converge principalement vers la Chine, plus gros
producteur mondial d’acier. C’est ainsi de façon naturelle que l’indice de référence
du négoce de minerai de fer correspond à une livraison CFR à un port chinois (Tianjin
/ Dalian / Qingdao pour citer les principaux) avec une concentration de 62% en
fer.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt1fpaDEuQV0unwduGhOHbqV4iP1eHrEbWVp5dhue3RGoLQ_u-a1YcNK8OsduHFfxJvnkmX9OO4keZfOsw2cOFt63bd6a-OYAURJds3URcbckDCLX5igcyv6q7JZDJp7VxeCMXgfyeFxDT/s1600/iron+ore+marketable+reserves.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt1fpaDEuQV0unwduGhOHbqV4iP1eHrEbWVp5dhue3RGoLQ_u-a1YcNK8OsduHFfxJvnkmX9OO4keZfOsw2cOFt63bd6a-OYAURJds3URcbckDCLX5igcyv6q7JZDJp7VxeCMXgfyeFxDT/s320/iron+ore+marketable+reserves.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Principales mines et réserves de minerai (cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pour résumer, l’idéal pour une minière est d’exploiter un
gisement riche en fer (de grade DSO –Direct Shipping Ore- si possible),
accessible (à fleur de la surface idéalement), bien relié à un port (voie
ferrée ou fluviale) qui se trouve lui-même le plus proche possible d'un port chinois…
En se basant sur ces critères, la région de Pilbara en Australie (nord ouest du pays) se retrouve en
1<sup>ère</sup> place sur le podium, profitant principalement à Rio Tinto et BHP. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quant à Vale au Brésil, elle a cherché à compenser son éloignement
géographique par l’utilisation d’une impressionnante flotte de VLOC (Very Large
Ore Cariers, « Valemax ») : de nouveaux monstres marins
transportant jusqu’à 400 mille tonnes de minerais de fer chacun ! La
faiblesse actuelle du coût de l’énergie contribue également à réduire le delta
de coût de transport vis-à-vis de ses concurrents australiens. De plus, un
immense projet, baptisé S11D, est en train de sortir de terre au Brésil. Il s’agit
d’un investissement colossal de 20 Mds USD qui ambitionne une production annuelle
de 90 Millions de tonnes de minerai associée à des coûts d’exploitation
extrêmement bas. <o:p></o:p></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitTIN2Q6g626VE8YTa83BQd1hhuErchAtmq4QPW28nn_07KFx7KApBmB-eEo1TXxuiH7Nt4GNeqq8NpfVB8WHz8iiwLKjjSUzn-zok5cQUmrv-hM3g5y4I1G5cDLs5xg_lOLGjZqIFim0d/s1600/world_brazil_valemax_asia-2_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitTIN2Q6g626VE8YTa83BQd1hhuErchAtmq4QPW28nn_07KFx7KApBmB-eEo1TXxuiH7Nt4GNeqq8NpfVB8WHz8iiwLKjjSUzn-zok5cQUmrv-hM3g5y4I1G5cDLs5xg_lOLGjZqIFim0d/s320/world_brazil_valemax_asia-2_0.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Route des Valemax vers l'Asie (cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
En attendant que le marché se ressaisisse, les 3 majeurs
devraient très probablement continuer à faire des bénéfices sur cette activité, restant les
producteurs à plus bas coût du secteur. Il s’agit vraiment de
« cash-cows » dont les marges restent importantes. Nous verrons dans
les prochaines années si la stratégie de « predator pricing » poussée
par les trois majors se révèle payante (c’est-à-dire si le marché aura
éliminé les acteurs marginaux / trop endettés).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
La valorisation de ces minières est prévue pour un prochain
article, avec tous les ratio et analyses de cash flows qui vont bien !<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
AMF :<i> je suis actuellement actionnaire de Rio Tinto et
je ne compte pas acheter ou vendre de titres d’aucune entreprise citée dans cet
article au cours des prochaines 48h. Cet article ne saurait constituer une
quelconque recommandation d’achat ou de vente et n’exprime qu’une opinion
personnelle. </i></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-70221972823670867652016-02-08T12:08:00.001-08:002017-05-01T02:27:55.385-07:00Bilan 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyTaJ50m0wVC7q6i_7cNx-Sh9nPUjj0epqH3DAmdDxlFVr4kafyYOuX3cir_c5U0cT7IEC3Lstk4KYYykzOtZpY1B5frIpEoaMlRZtloPwPgVyNShFvKQR0KYh8mwXB5GROLgDxOTbsHNE/s1600/Bilan+portfolio+2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyTaJ50m0wVC7q6i_7cNx-Sh9nPUjj0epqH3DAmdDxlFVr4kafyYOuX3cir_c5U0cT7IEC3Lstk4KYYykzOtZpY1B5frIpEoaMlRZtloPwPgVyNShFvKQR0KYh8mwXB5GROLgDxOTbsHNE/s200/Bilan+portfolio+2015.jpg" width="200" /></a>Le portefeuille affiche de nouveau une performance
positive en 2015 : <b>+6.23%</b>. Nous atteignons donc une performance
globale de <b>+155%</b> depuis la création du portefeuille (il y a presque 7
ans) soit <b>+14,7% annualisé</b>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Aucune année négative n’est à déplorer pour
le moment et la volatilité reste maîtrisée (+9.1% annuel), ce qui me conforte
dans mes choix de gestion. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cette année a été marquée par la chute des matières
premières (énergie et métaux de base en tête), un environnement de taux bas,
une baisse de l’euro face au dollar US et une résurgence de craintes quant à
l’éventuel hard landing chinois. La faiblesse du Baltic Dry Index témoigne autant d'une surcapacité de vraquiers que du ralentissement des échanges tandis que les géants du négoce (Glencore, Noble...) sont en cours de deleveraging via d'importantes cessions d'actifs. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Concernant le portefeuille, l’OPA sur Faiveley a contribué
favorablement à la performance (+99.4% en 2015), tandis que Casino accuse une
chute de -44.5% sur cette même année, le rapport Muddy Water ayant légèrement amplifié
la chute.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Récapitulatif : <o:p></o:p></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Période<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Evolution de la part<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Valeur de la part
(*)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2015<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+6.23%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">255.53<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2014<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+7.02%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">240.54<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2013<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+34.69%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">224.76<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+23.56%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">166.87<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+3.70%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">135.05<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+12.30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">130.23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2009
(sur 10 mois)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+15.97%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">115.97<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(*) : base 100 à la création du portefeuille en 2009<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
L’allocation d’actif tourne
autour de 90% actions / 10% obligations. Les obligations détenues sont
majoritairement à taux variable. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Allocation par classe d’actif :<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeCPDqshmuiHTklrJrYafvi8mzJylvRNS-Ubo83ZNgjD6C1GxJHJr6ngl9PhjtNU662YHi7qhfSinZZj_7ckLqVqj6UwYVwMlyGojOgG5OBS6uh7FwINmOvBWAqDBsfD2_nS-UQni9FVqd/s1600/Allocation+classe+actifs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeCPDqshmuiHTklrJrYafvi8mzJylvRNS-Ubo83ZNgjD6C1GxJHJr6ngl9PhjtNU662YHi7qhfSinZZj_7ckLqVqj6UwYVwMlyGojOgG5OBS6uh7FwINmOvBWAqDBsfD2_nS-UQni9FVqd/s320/Allocation+classe+actifs.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Allocation par place de cotation :<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQGlBS-8CCkk-EI9LsQ2-IA4JZIk3rVHFP5fVAGhX3fprPiT0AziK_ffVyAAv5v2AEqa8taaunk04_atZD1VCIgG7UcQOHFyUs_2fNUyC3sUK6wjk7eBm5GZSGw2jCgYS42c7o6sXHJkhw/s1600/Allocation+actifs+place+cotation+LSE+XETRA+PARIS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQGlBS-8CCkk-EI9LsQ2-IA4JZIk3rVHFP5fVAGhX3fprPiT0AziK_ffVyAAv5v2AEqa8taaunk04_atZD1VCIgG7UcQOHFyUs_2fNUyC3sUK6wjk7eBm5GZSGw2jCgYS42c7o6sXHJkhw/s320/Allocation+actifs+place+cotation+LSE+XETRA+PARIS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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La volatilité annuelle du portefeuille reste stable et s’établie
à 9.1% en 2015. Le ratio de Sharpe se retrouve donc inférieur à l’unité cette
année<o:p></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">. La VaR
paramétrique 95% à 1 an s’établie à -6% en utilisant une hypothèse de rendement
moyen de +8% (VaR = -15% avec une hypothèse de rendement moyen nul).</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Voici la distribution des rendements hebdomadaires en
2015 :<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7GrkdiGQeXq3hYjj2pKMuyrAqNA7rOBQ3lalB1r5F_jTnvDBfoVjxmvc37EtP9lZ5p-AbdPdwh_kQf0p_WJHmx3crl1ssoEA1cWZXaMx2mBg8c0gxpBTyoi3_cyOwtaaLivyf68NhfDcy/s1600/distribution+rendements+hebdomadaires.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7GrkdiGQeXq3hYjj2pKMuyrAqNA7rOBQ3lalB1r5F_jTnvDBfoVjxmvc37EtP9lZ5p-AbdPdwh_kQf0p_WJHmx3crl1ssoEA1cWZXaMx2mBg8c0gxpBTyoi3_cyOwtaaLivyf68NhfDcy/s400/distribution+rendements+hebdomadaires.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Les secteurs de l’énergie et des métaux de base étaient
sous-représentés jusqu’à présent. Suite à la baisse des cours, je compte
renforcer leur poids dans le portefeuille au cours des mois à venir. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<i>Disclaimer AMF : les performances passées ne présagent pas des performances futures, ceci est un simple rapport de gestion d'un portefeuille personnel et ne saurait constituer un quelconque conseil en investissement.</i></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-18860571619902837602015-05-02T04:52:00.000-07:002015-05-02T04:52:09.305-07:00Et pour quelques barils de plus...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYV8v8WBXsx3vYjT3SDmTmWLwZZpHWJ3sJl1Fa8GgIUXGoSlAd1SUm48vqVhQMZsF8iWh1MMum0UVUmbtnZ2SiRpPjxANf7BZZ-SfhY0j4sPogV7jjNA7nksY8vc3pj_N053-NAGvr0Cmz/s1600/Cuve+de+stockage+petrole+Irak+contango+brent+baril.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYV8v8WBXsx3vYjT3SDmTmWLwZZpHWJ3sJl1Fa8GgIUXGoSlAd1SUm48vqVhQMZsF8iWh1MMum0UVUmbtnZ2SiRpPjxANf7BZZ-SfhY0j4sPogV7jjNA7nksY8vc3pj_N053-NAGvr0Cmz/s1600/Cuve+de+stockage+petrole+Irak+contango+brent+baril.jpg" height="133" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cuves de stockage de pétrole en Irak</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Chaque marché présente son lot d’opportunités. Qui profite
donc aujourd’hui de la baisse des prix de l’or noir ? Bien entendu vous me
répondrez tous en chœur : « les sociétés consommatrices de pétrole :
industriels comme Michelin et compagnies de transport principalement ». Oui,
mais aujourd’hui je vais plutôt parler de certaines sociétés de l’industrie pétrolière
qui ont su augmenter leurs profits grâce à la chute des prix.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Je nomme : les compagnies de stockage de pétrole !
En effet, la surabondance d’offre de pétrole a fait plus lourdement chuter le
cours spot du pétrole que les marchés à terme (contrats pour une livraison dans
3 mois, 6 mois…). Cette situation a créé
un fort contango (marché à terme > spot). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Or, lorsque le contango est assez important, il y a une
opportunité d’arbitrage qui consiste à acheter la matière première (physiquement,
au cours spot), vendre un contrat future et stocker la matière première jusqu’à
échéance du contrat future (date de livraison). Cet arbitrage n’est possible
que si le spread spot-future dépasse les couts de stockage, d’assurance et les
intérêts liés à l’achat spot. En finançant l’achat spot à 100% on réaliserait
alors un arbitrage parfait : aucun risque, pas de cash à sortir et un
profit certain.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Voici la structure actuelle (mars 2015) du marché à terme sur le WTI et le Brent :</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCf8SshuXVp7A29as-2Fx0KuNaY_ez5AOS6GU8tm_-tEnVaai3o3fDquAzkhM8LL0h-Ynanm7VGAAVpgS71uZn_3NxSz7hHFYlZ0ucu1uvjz04-zhPmtffLg6ikquGnQmkvhvbJkFuXpi/s1600/Contango+petrol+brent+WTI+long+terme+graph+courbe+historique+contrats+futures.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCf8SshuXVp7A29as-2Fx0KuNaY_ez5AOS6GU8tm_-tEnVaai3o3fDquAzkhM8LL0h-Ynanm7VGAAVpgS71uZn_3NxSz7hHFYlZ0ucu1uvjz04-zhPmtffLg6ikquGnQmkvhvbJkFuXpi/s1600/Contango+petrol+brent+WTI+long+terme+graph+courbe+historique+contrats+futures.png" height="207" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Stucture marché à terme brent et WTI en mars 2015 (cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Exemple concret : le cours du WTI (spot, mars 2015) est de 47.44 USD contre 56.12 USD pour le contrat future à échéance mars 2016 (un an plus tard). Cela fait un écart de 8.68 USD par baril soit un spread de 18.3% ! Maintenant il faut retrancher intérêts et assurance sur 1 an autour de -1.5 USD / baril et les frais de stockage : actuellement entre 0.5 USD/mois/baril et 1.2 USD pour les solutions les moins optimisées (la location des cuves étant moins chères que celle des navires) soit des frais compris entre 6 USD pour la solution optimisée et 14.4 pour l'autre.</div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCuUtdhHiq3UaeAtEucM5EpXL_r66I4mg_M7VF89YjuysMVEqazQDcUgoLaf4eznuCEh6r5P_2wffm3fjQB_QTEPnDkBXWuE5FCXGqVlpkSpBxG7_ztTPBBFwL5bttI-B63A64pnRk11X/s1600/arbitrage+WTI+calendar+spread+brent+oil+storage+cost+insurance.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCuUtdhHiq3UaeAtEucM5EpXL_r66I4mg_M7VF89YjuysMVEqazQDcUgoLaf4eznuCEh6r5P_2wffm3fjQB_QTEPnDkBXWuE5FCXGqVlpkSpBxG7_ztTPBBFwL5bttI-B63A64pnRk11X/s1600/arbitrage+WTI+calendar+spread+brent+oil+storage+cost+insurance.png" height="125" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Exemple concret d'arbitrage physique en mars 2015</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Bilan : l'arbitrage n'est positif qu'à condition de faire les bons choix logistique et de tout optimiser (l'arbitrage physique requière donc de disposer d'économies d'échelle). There is no free lunch !</div>
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Ces anomalies de
marché constituent le fonds de commerce de nombreux arbitrageurs et autres
traders commodities des boites de négoce (Vitol, Glencore, Mercuria, Gunvor,
Trafigura…) ainsi que de certaines banques
ou de majors pétrolières. Leurs interventions tendent constamment à
ramener le marché vers une situation sans anomalies (sans opportunités
d’arbitrage).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Revenons à nos moutons et voyons en quoi le contango impacte
les sociétés de stockage. Comme nous venons de le voir, la forte baisse de prix
a attiré de nombreux arbitrageurs et également des spéculateurs. Ils veulent
tous acheter du pétrole aujourd’hui et le stocker pour le revendre plus cher dans
quelques mois : ce sont donc des merveilleux clients pour les compagnies
de stockage ! Cette demande de capacité de stockage fait donc monter les
prix de location (l’offre de stockage restant limitée) des cuves et des tankers
(un VLCC peut contenir 2 millions de barrils). </div>
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Pour donner une idée de ce marché : en moyenne un VLCC qui se louait
60K USD quelques mois auparavant se loue désormais au-dessus de 80K USD
aujourd’hui soit une augmentation du charter rate de +33% (avec de fortes
variations selon les termes du contrat, des caractéristiques du navire etc).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Comme on peut le voir sur le graphique ci-dessous, la demande de stockage de pétrole a explosé (x3) ces derniers mois (proxy : cuves de Cushing) :</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHDrHoazInYzySPVljsvKPFCN2ij1gcCzW4nJfQYl4r_SiTQBFsk9zXRRRH_SKT1e1TaQns81vwFSnlTQunzqRhBNCBZJnJBEtlj8-g5RySirF3JtGA7EKfF0ZH92-oYf3ZdD-1DwUhM1/s1600/Cushing+stocks.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHDrHoazInYzySPVljsvKPFCN2ij1gcCzW4nJfQYl4r_SiTQBFsk9zXRRRH_SKT1e1TaQns81vwFSnlTQunzqRhBNCBZJnJBEtlj8-g5RySirF3JtGA7EKfF0ZH92-oYf3ZdD-1DwUhM1/s1600/Cushing+stocks.png" height="160" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Evolution du stock de pétrole à Cushing (hors réserves stratégique des USA). Source : EIA. (Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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Ces sociétés sont peu connues du grand public : Vopak
(capacité de 210 millions de barils), Kinder Morgan, OilTanking GmbH et
Magellan Midstream Partners LP sont les plus importantes de ces sociétés
spécialisées et indépendantes (chaque major détient des capacités de stockage).
Parmi les traders qui détiennent de fortes capacités de stockage, on peut noter
Mercuria qui peut stocker plus de 40 millions de barils et VTTI qui est une
filiale de Vitole.<o:p></o:p></div>
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</div>
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<br /></div>
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Resterait-il des miettes pour nous, pauvres petits
investisseurs ? Malheureusement, les opérations d’arbitrage physique sur
le pétrole ont une forte barrière à l’entrée. Concernant un investissement
equity dans les sociétés de stockage mentionnées, mon point de vue est que ces
sociétés ne sont pas spécialement bon marché actuellement (PER autour de 20)
malgré le repricing de leurs nouveaux contrats. Ces tarifs ne vont pas forcément
perdurer et de nouvelles capacitées de stockage vont rentrer sur le marché. La prochaine hausse des cours de pétrole ou l’arrivée de nouvelles
capacités de stockage sur le marché réduiront automatiquement les marges de
Vopak et consorts.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ce qu’il faut retenir de tout cela est que :<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">En termes de
diversification de portefeuille il faut prendre en compte la sensibilité de
chaque actif aux différentes variables macroéconomiques (cours du pétrole, taux
d’intérêts etc) et non pas classer bêtement par secteur d’activité.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Chaque situation de marché
présente son lot d’opportunités (arbitrages, hausses des tarifs des nouveaux
contrats de location…).</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Il faut se méfier des
heuristiques (ne pas prendre de raccourcis dans une analyse) et bien vérifier
que les nouvelles ne sont pas déjà dans les cours.</span></li>
</ul>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-82172298723791727832015-02-01T12:52:00.001-08:002017-05-01T02:29:54.378-07:00Bilan 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKLFuP1rXVM90d-LFePhtt-_1fxzPZZ1P1KxKjzJVu7dzIzoVsoSTJDFCgfiE7e6D8qt1F18l-cWC1lbM2aUHPSuQ6eTUyFBUR5WEfLsTu1nzW-STVPDqhe59qPazMag7V6IyEkxqp5nkI/s1600/Bilan+2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKLFuP1rXVM90d-LFePhtt-_1fxzPZZ1P1KxKjzJVu7dzIzoVsoSTJDFCgfiE7e6D8qt1F18l-cWC1lbM2aUHPSuQ6eTUyFBUR5WEfLsTu1nzW-STVPDqhe59qPazMag7V6IyEkxqp5nkI/s1600/Bilan+2014.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cette année encore, le portefeuille affiche une performance
positive : +7%. Je considère cette performance comme satisfaisante compte
tenu de l’évolution des marchés l’année précédente (le portefeuille avait fait +30%
en 2013) et le manque d’opportunités début 2014.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On arrive donc à une performance globale de<b> +140%</b> depuis la
création du portefeuille (il y a presque 6 ans) soit +16,25% annualisé<b>.</b> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Aucune
année négative n'est à déplorer pour le moment et la volatilité semble maîtrisée, ce qui me
conforte dans mes choix de gestion. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Récapitulatif : <o:p></o:p></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Période<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Evolution de la part<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Valeur de la part (*)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2014<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+7.02%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">240.54<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2013<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+34.69%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">224.76<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+23.56%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">166.87<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+3.70%</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">135.05<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+12.30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">130.23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2009
(sur 10 mois)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 54.8pt;" valign="top" width="73"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+15.97%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 77.95pt;" valign="top" width="104"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">115.97<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(*) : base 100 à la création du portefeuille en 2009<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
La performance 2014 a été plombée par les fortes baisses de
Morrisons et Suedzucker qui souffrent actuellement d’un contexte sectoriel très
défavorable (guerre des prix au Royaume-Uni pour Morrisons et chute du cours du
sucre pour Suedzucker). J’ai pu me renforcer sur ces deux valeurs en cours d’année.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Niveau hausses, je cite Orange que j’avais acheté one-shot à
7.4€ et revendu très récemment à 14.2€. Mon opinion étant que les multiples de
valorisation sont devenus trop élevés au regard de la situation concurrentielle, des problèmes de corporate governance et des faibles perspectives du groupe. De nombreux gérants de fonds se sentent obligés d'en avoir en portefeuille car c'est la plus forte hausse du CAC40... Nous n'avons pas les mêmes valeurs apparemment.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
J’ai également cédé un peu plus de la moitié de mes titres Exacompta-Clairefontaine
autour de 80€. J’ai eu un market-timing très favorable (j’avais acheté autour de
39€, quasiment au plus bas). Il s’agit d’un asset play dont l'issue reste fortement
dépendante du bon vouloir des dirigeants. Le manque de catalyseurs au déblocage
de valeur explique la valorisation actuelle. Wait and see.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Au niveau macro, la forte chute du pétrole a été globalement
favorable car le portefeuille est davantage constitué de sociétés consommatrices
de cette matière première (comme Michelin) que de producteurs. A titre très anecdotique,
j’ai pris en janvier 2015 une petite couverture optionnelle sur une éventuelle
hausse du brent (moins de 0.2% du portefeuille en valeur de marché).<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
La volatilité annuelle du portefeuille s’établit à 9.8% en
2014. Le ratio de Sharpe se retrouve donc inférieur à l’unité cette année.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pour finir, voici l'évolution du portefeuille depuis sa création (l'indice CAC40 est affiché à titre indicatif mais n'est pas un benchmark) :</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKigAgn8FV9ks1O3ABuL9r0p8LO-JJ5BpCYajR5F2K_goYLQPrG17zCrE-8DzbwegeM6iGQuBIBXi5iJLEj-pBlt-Ql4BQFsJcRQFjjsCmuw6imhHY0ZgUFF75PEdgQDMEdKq4STSh0LHu/s1600/perf+vs+CAC40.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKigAgn8FV9ks1O3ABuL9r0p8LO-JJ5BpCYajR5F2K_goYLQPrG17zCrE-8DzbwegeM6iGQuBIBXi5iJLEj-pBlt-Ql4BQFsJcRQFjjsCmuw6imhHY0ZgUFF75PEdgQDMEdKq4STSh0LHu/s1600/perf+vs+CAC40.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>-cliquez pour agrandir-</i> Portefeuille en bleu, CAC40 en rouge</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bons investissements à tous !</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-18488280065817774602014-07-18T15:00:00.000-07:002014-07-18T15:03:10.502-07:00A contre-courant<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFSkFUhyphenhyphenBPglI-79UUN30Rd9KwiwZRlc3sqh4lSkwXCtcZqGHgWzPBpSQGaSpLyHHE8YKP6gp1YFqCp_gVNf5pKAhaVXK0cH6JT1Vozs42UJoEdK-8hT-6yfd_lZueOP4_3sNA5hWdbAgr/s1600/fish2+(1+of+1)-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFSkFUhyphenhyphenBPglI-79UUN30Rd9KwiwZRlc3sqh4lSkwXCtcZqGHgWzPBpSQGaSpLyHHE8YKP6gp1YFqCp_gVNf5pKAhaVXK0cH6JT1Vozs42UJoEdK-8hT-6yfd_lZueOP4_3sNA5hWdbAgr/s1600/fish2+(1+of+1)-2.jpg" height="168" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quel que soit le domaine, il est rarement aisé d’avancer à
contre-courant. C’est actuellement le cas pour mes deux derniers
investissements qui vont à l’encontre de la pensée dominante du marché.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Comme vous le savez, j’essaie souvent de tirer parti des
grandes peurs souvent simplifiées et exagérées par le marché. Cette stratégie
est souvent profitable et j’ai pu réaliser de bons investissements qui étaient
à contre-courant par le passé. Mais qu’en sera-t-il de mes deux dernières
positions ? J’en doute moi-même. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
De qui s’agit-il ? Je nomme Suedzucker et Morrisons !
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Suedzucker </span>(Allemagne) est principalement un producteur
de sucre (environ 50% du chiffre d’affaire). La grande peur du marché concerne
la fin des quotas européens prévue en 2017 livrant les producteurs européens
(betterave) à la concurrence des producteurs brésiliens (canne) et autres gros
exportateurs. De plus, en ce moment le cours du sucre est à un niveau
extrêmement bas, dû à une série d’années de production mondiale supérieure à la
consommation. Les stocks de sucre sont au plus haut.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRbrSZA8W4TXKAdvxvDGQLc-GzEQcJfVq6gGmQ1P48KYXsVAFKfrM4EYE0afjfX5p-B_Wqu8hCQCTChPRD6ajlc-dKOE0T1OT65g7wXpVn9ixdqWCktv4oU_iJqO3OeERfgqdVKizSUIgx/s1600/SZU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRbrSZA8W4TXKAdvxvDGQLc-GzEQcJfVq6gGmQ1P48KYXsVAFKfrM4EYE0afjfX5p-B_Wqu8hCQCTChPRD6ajlc-dKOE0T1OT65g7wXpVn9ixdqWCktv4oU_iJqO3OeERfgqdVKizSUIgx/s1600/SZU.png" height="130" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cours de l'action Suedzucker sur 5 ans</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWxGupRyAW4ChXKqCjnqOO86EE71YvC7auEOohkbIma456FtjWB29R1tLEEmE5TOhLJgebYON5kOUetUu8QE6YrY1-C7UeUV_4DTFDANOtdpi9N8wLhs3dwCgA1S1UQnvnB-pplIMEaPOu/s1600/Sugar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWxGupRyAW4ChXKqCjnqOO86EE71YvC7auEOohkbIma456FtjWB29R1tLEEmE5TOhLJgebYON5kOUetUu8QE6YrY1-C7UeUV_4DTFDANOtdpi9N8wLhs3dwCgA1S1UQnvnB-pplIMEaPOu/s1600/Sugar.png" height="136" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cours du sucre sur 5 ans</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ces craintes sont justifiées et me préoccupent également
mais je pense qu’il faut voir plus loin. Tout marché s’ajuste avec le temps, la
faiblesse des cours du sucre devrait pousser certains producteurs à se tourner
vers d’autres cultures (et certaines raffineries ferment déjà) alors que la consommation
de son côté devrait continuer de progresser de 2% annuellement en moyenne. Il
ne faut pas non plus prendre les nombreuses années de bonnes récoltes comme
étant une constante devenue intemporelle. La région Centre-Sud du Brésil
pourrait très bien être frappée par une maladie ou un événement climatique (El
niño…) dans un futur proche. Cela amputerait fortement le stock mondial et
rétablirait un certain équilibre. Pour finir, concernant la fin des quotas, je
pense qu’il ne faut pas sous-estimer le pouvoir de lobbying du premier producteur
de sucre européen. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je ne spécule pas sur un élément en particulier mais je
pense que la situation ne sera pas forcément aussi terrible qu’annoncée.
Suedzucker a très peu de dettes, génère 700 millions de cash-flow opérationnel et
vaut 3Mds € en bourse actuellement contre 7Mds € à son plus haut, en mars 2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Morrison</span> (Royaume Uni) est une chaine de supermarché
britannique qui perd des parts de marché face à la concurrence du hard
discount. La grande peur du marché est l’effet dévastateur qu’aura la guerre
des prix (déjà en cours) dans ce secteur ultra concurrentiel. Le marché n’a
plus confiance dans le management de cette chaine qui a plusieurs fois changé
de stratégie et semble manquer de cohérence. De plus, cette société a posté une
perte nette pour l’exercice 2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8sjGvs2kWu8DAfHvH87qnLWqiPoaIAmKmHf_EpSBHHtxtrRUZdzxJbv3-UwFQbkPxxT_vumW81OOheej3R3rfHrUZz_W-pG-iZ4BB0LqWKMl1uGWsHFv_6wPxbWndF5RlI6fUUFJl61SK/s1600/MRW.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8sjGvs2kWu8DAfHvH87qnLWqiPoaIAmKmHf_EpSBHHtxtrRUZdzxJbv3-UwFQbkPxxT_vumW81OOheej3R3rfHrUZz_W-pG-iZ4BB0LqWKMl1uGWsHFv_6wPxbWndF5RlI6fUUFJl61SK/s1600/MRW.png" height="153" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: left;">Cours de l'action Morrison sur 5 ans</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je suis en phase avec le marché concernant la situation
concurrentielle et j’ai malheureusement commencé à investir dans Morrison peu
avant le lancement de la grande guerre des prix (campagne « I’M
cheaper » lancée par Morrison). Concernant la perte comptable, qui est un élément
de pessimisme facile à opposer, il faut aller un peu plus loin et voir qu’il ne
s’agit que de grosses dépréciations très exceptionnelles (pour 900 millions £)
sans lesquelles le résultat aurait été largement positif (environ +700 millions
£ de mémoire). En revanche, j’ai du mal à comprendre la vision du management et
je doute de ses compétences quand je vois le prix de vente ridicule de
Kiddicare (vente en ligne de produits pour bébés) : 2 millions £ pour une
activité réalisant 80 millions £ de chiffre d’affaire (vente annoncée il y a
deux jours)… une vente sur le marché privé pour 5% du chiffre d’affaire me
laisse sans voix…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pourquoi diable ai-je investis dans cette société ? Je
l'ai fait (peut-être à tort) en partie compte tenu de la valeur de ses
actifs immobiliers: Morrison possède l’immobilier de 90% de ses
supermarchés, centres de distribution et centres de production (oui, Morrison
est fortement intégrée verticalement). J’estime la valeur des actifs nets de
dettes de Morrisons légèrement au-dessus de 300 pence par action contre un
cours boursier de 180 pence actuellement. Je tablais également sur un retour à
la moyenne des ventes par m² mais c’était sans compter les récents changements
de stratégies du management. Le cash-flow opérationnel autour du Milliards de £
me confortait également. Enfin, vivant à Londres et faisant régulièrement mes
courses chez Morrison, je constatais une affluence importante, bien loin du
pessimisme des différentes études de marché.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Morrison côte actuellement 4,2 Mds £ (+2.8Mds de dettes)
pour 18 Mds £ de chiffre d’affaire et 720 millions de cash-flow opérationnel. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Opportunités ou value-traps, c’est souvent la question que
l’on se pose dans des investissements à contre-courant. Le temps nous donnera
son verdict ! <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je ne recommande aucune des actions citées dans cet article
(ni à l’achat ni à la vente), je possède des actions Morrison et des actions
Suedzucker et je ne compte pas faire de transaction les concernant dans les
prochaines 48h.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-28368645010420984762013-12-30T05:10:00.000-08:002014-01-03T16:55:19.593-08:00La fin des bonnes affaires<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqe55VZu5Vqv8rupAaMfB-jIZXGRlIA-aKNtP7JihMsWk_8uf2hdH13iQQtaywkJgiwu8KE48o1w4qauNbTG2p8yU-ufbtBRbXM0tU2NQ0JTFGlV2S444HYPKdNPZedcowJZ74_WBGHqVh/s1600/botte+de+foin+investir+crop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqe55VZu5Vqv8rupAaMfB-jIZXGRlIA-aKNtP7JihMsWk_8uf2hdH13iQQtaywkJgiwu8KE48o1w4qauNbTG2p8yU-ufbtBRbXM0tU2NQ0JTFGlV2S444HYPKdNPZedcowJZ74_WBGHqVh/s200/botte+de+foin+investir+crop.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A la recherche d'une aiguille...</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
La hausse récente du marché action a réduit de facto le nombre d'opportunités disponibles. Je dois dire que je peine désormais à trouver des sociétés présentant de larges décotes sur ce que j'estime être leur valeur intrinsèque.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je vois de plus en plus de "2-baggers" dans mon portefeuille qui a progressé de 29% en 2013. A l'instant où j'écris ces lignes je viens de solder une position pour 2,9 x mon prix d'acquisition (acheté one-shot en 2011) car je n'y vois plus aucune marge de sécurité.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Voici à titre d'exemple mon portefeuille en novembre 2013: (classement par poids dans le portefeuille)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6948; mso-width-source: userset; width: 143pt;" width="190"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3547; mso-width-source: userset; width: 73pt;" width="97"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2377; mso-width-source: userset; width: 49pt;" width="65"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2706; mso-width-source: userset; width: 56pt;" width="74"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1974; mso-width-source: userset; width: 41pt;" width="54"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 9398; mso-width-source: userset; width: 193pt;" width="257"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl79" height="20" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 143pt;" width="190">Titre</td>
<td class="xl80" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 73pt;" width="97">ISIN</td>
<td class="xl66" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 49pt;" width="65">PRU</td>
<td class="xl67" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 56pt;" width="74">Cours </td>
<td class="xl80" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 56pt;" width="74">+/- values</td>
<td class="xl80" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 41pt;" width="54">Poids</td>
<td class="xl81" style="background-color: #4f81bd; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Commentaire</td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="60" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 45pt; text-underline-style: none;">MALTERIES FCO-BEL. (MALT)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000030074</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">175,40 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">194,50 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">10,89%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">12,91%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Le cours est récemment passé à
229€ suite à un achat ayant vidé le carnet d'ordre.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">SECURIDEV
(SCDV)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000052839</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">24,93
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">32,50
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">30,38%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">9,40%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="40" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;">CHAUF.URB.</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000052896</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">85,35 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">101,49 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">18,91%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">7,70%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Très beaux résultats cette année
(rigueur climatique)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">BNP
PARIBAS ACT.A</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000131104</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">29,58
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">54,11
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">82,93%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">6,73%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="60" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 45pt; text-underline-style: none;"> EXACOMPTA CLAIREF.</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000064164</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">39,64 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">52,10 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">31,43%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">5,68%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">"Asset Play": grosse
décote sur actif net mais problème de réallocation du capital à des taux
extrêmement bas.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="100" style="height: 75.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="100" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 75pt; text-underline-style: none;">SOCIETE
GENERALE (GLE)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000130809</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">15,65
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">40,43
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl73" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none;">158,33%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">4,89%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Je
compte solder cette ligne dans les prochaines 24h. J'avais acheté par esprit
contrarian principalement. Avec les dividendes c'est quasiment un 3 baggers.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="40" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;">SG TITRE SUB TMO (-)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000585564</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,64 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,69 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">7,04%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">3,92%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Subordonné au paiement d'un
dividende.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">AXA
FRNPL (XS0188935174)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">XS0188935174</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,57
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,95
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">66,35%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">3,36%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Perpétuelle
à taux fixe.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="60" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 45pt; text-underline-style: none;">ETAM DEVELOPPEMENT (TAM)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000035743</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">10,49 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">22,23 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl73" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none;">111,90%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">3,16%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Je n'ai pas apporté mes titres à
l'offre de rachat (en partie pour des raison fiscales).</td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="40" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;"> SUEDZUCKER(XETRA)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">DE0007297004</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">23,42
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">20,79
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-11,23%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">3,08%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Le
cours a baissé entre temps et j'ai renforcé autour de 18,5.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">CR.AG.TV0303 12ANS (ACABC)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000181307</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,83 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,00 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">20,53%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,97%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">Michelin
SA</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000121261</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">46,07
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">79,00
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">71,48%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,43%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">AXA (CS)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120628</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">8,59 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">18,83 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl73" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none;">119,12%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,23%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">FAIVELEY
TRANSPORT (LEY)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000053142</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">37,06
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">57,50
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">55,14%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,04%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;"> ROUGIER S.A.</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000037640</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">26,42 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">28,55 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">8,06%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,89%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">CASINO
TV TSDI (CATS)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0010154385</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,62
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,78
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">25,87%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,84%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="120" style="height: 90.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="120" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 90pt; text-underline-style: none;">PEUGEOT (UG)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000121501</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">8,57 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">10,31 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">20,26%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,71%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">J'ai soldé la moitié de la ligne
un mois avant ce reporting. Comme SG, j'avais acheté par esprit contrarian
principalement. Secteur en surcapacité avec un point mort extrêmement élevé.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">BNPTMOFRN29OCT49
(-)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000572646</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,68
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,68
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-0,37%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,63%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">CASINO GUICHARD (CO)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000125585</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">62,61 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">81,79 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">30,63%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">3,00%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">ORANGE
(ORA)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000133308</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">7,39
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">9,42
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">27,40%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,52%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">Interparfums SA</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0004024222</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">16,86 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">30,50 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">80,90%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,48%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="60" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 45pt; text-underline-style: none;">BOIRON
(BOI)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000061129</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">18,86
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">47,76
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl73" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; text-underline-style: none;">153,23%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,42%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">J'ai
soldé la moitié de la ligne un mois avant ce reporting. A quel prix payer la
croissance ?</td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="40" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;">LDC (LOUP)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000053829</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">75,05 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">118,53 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">57,95%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,40%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">A profité de la faillite de ses
concurrents en Bretagne.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">CICTSDIFRN29JUL49
(-)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000584377</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,61
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,62
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,19%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,40%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">BONGRAIN (BH)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120107</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">47,88 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">58,20 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">21,57%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,38%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">TOTAL
(FP)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120271</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">37,85
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">44,46
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">17,45%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,37%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">NIBC FRNPL (XS0249580357)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">XS0249580357</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,46 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,57 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">22,55%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,35%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">SCOR
SE (SCR)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0010411983</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">18,02
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">25,80
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">43,16%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,22%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">ACHMEA 6.000% PERP</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">NL0000168714</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,91 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,02 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">12,51%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,21%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">FLEURY
MICHON (FLE)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000074759</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">28,03
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">48,00
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">71,28%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,14%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">Lyxor ETF CAC 40 (CAC)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0007052782</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">30,13 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">42,49 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">40,99%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,06%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">Séché
Environnement</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000039109</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">29,85
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">28,60
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-4,17%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">1,02%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Fin
des déboires avec la SAUR…</td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="60" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 45pt; text-underline-style: none;">SANOFI (SAN)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120578</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">51,49 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">78,45 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">52,37%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,93%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Acheté au moment ou tout le
monde craignait le "patent cliff". Pas eu l'occasion de renforcer
depuis.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">BOUYGUES
(EN)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120503</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">32,54
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">28,29
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-13,07%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,67%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">CNP ASSURANCES (CNP)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000120222</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">15,36 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">14,00 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-8,86%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,46%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="20" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 15pt; text-underline-style: none;">VIEL
ET COMPAGNIE (VIL)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0000050049</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,88
€</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">2,35
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-18,40%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,28%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="40" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;">AUSYFRN20OCT14 (-)</td>
<td class="xl69" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">FR0010805358</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,69 €</td>
<td class="xl70" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,90 €</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #006600; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">30,26%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl71" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,10%</td>
<td class="xl72" style="background-color: #dce6f1; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Remboursement du principal par
amortissements.</td>
</tr>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td class="xl74" height="40" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; height: 30pt; text-underline-style: none;">SNS
6.258-VAR% PERP</td>
<td class="xl75" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">XS0310904155</td>
<td class="xl76" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,71
€</td>
<td class="xl76" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,00
€</td>
<td align="right" class="xl77" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; color: #9c0006; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">-100,00%</td>
<td align="right" class="xl77" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none;">0,00%</td>
<td class="xl78" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; text-underline-style: none; width: 193pt;" width="257">Expropriation.
Actions en justice en cours.</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
Depuis sa création en 2009 le portefeuille a progressé de +116%, ce qui reflète un rendement annualisé de 17,4%. Je considère que les conditions actuelles ne permettent pas de répliquer cette performance de façon sereine (avec une marge de sécurité).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Je recherche donc actuellement des sociétés solides, peu cycliques, ayant d'importants cash-flows, relativement cheap et cotées dans des pays sans "withholding tax" de préférence (comme Singapour par exemple). Des idées ?</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-25759738282367460792013-11-06T06:53:00.000-08:002013-11-06T17:02:45.245-08:00Le LBO parfait<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJZMRlrtAxISrPE2wp7cpa0TIuhnf2-Z6G8C_8cGNnA5HZuidiHR3FU6ff9UJYPaC5PpmcDj1X7DTAFBjScQ9oBXIDrLnttUsgfeS2Qw185EEW8CbzQusSOD_RYujZJZPa0r2Lp3Y9Zvgf/s1600/LBO+Blackstone+Celanese.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJZMRlrtAxISrPE2wp7cpa0TIuhnf2-Z6G8C_8cGNnA5HZuidiHR3FU6ff9UJYPaC5PpmcDj1X7DTAFBjScQ9oBXIDrLnttUsgfeS2Qw185EEW8CbzQusSOD_RYujZJZPa0r2Lp3Y9Zvgf/s200/LBO+Blackstone+Celanese.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
J’aimerais revenir sur un cas de LBO (leverage buy out : rachat d’entreprise avec effet de levier)
que je considère comme emblématique car cette opération a été menée avec brio
en utilisant les principales techniques d’ingénierie financière pratiquées par
les fonds de capital investissement.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Il s’agit du LBO mené en 2004 par Blackstone (fond d’investissement
américain) et dont la cible était Celanese, société allemande dans l’industrie
chimique.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ce groupe était une cible idéale pour plusieurs raisons aux
yeux de Blackstone :</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
</div>
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Cash-flows suffisamment importants et stables </span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">(nécessaire pour soutenir un tel montage)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Faible valorisation (liée au contexte macro et
au fait que l’activité soit cyclique)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Organisation loin d’être optimisée (lié à l’historique
de la société, née de successions de fusions et acquisitions. Par exemple le
siège était en Allemagne alors que 80% de l’activité était basée aux USA)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 7pt; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Un management trop bureaucratique (donc à
remplacer au moins partiellement)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Amélioration possible de la productivité de
différentes usines (via des investissements en matériel performant et autres
CAPEX)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Présence d’actifs et d’activités non rentables
(à liquider)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Différence de multiples de valorisation utilisés
entre Francfort et New York</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 7pt; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">La possibilité à terme de baisser le coût de
financement de Celanese (grace à l’augmentation prévue du cash-flow une fois
les opérations de restructuration terminée).</span></li>
</ol>
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Tous ces éléments ont été utilisés au maximum lors de cette
opération et l’effet de levier créé par la dette (niveau holding) a amplifié le
tout. Je passe les classiques avantages de la déduction fiscale des intérêts
ainsi que la protection juridique apportée par l’utilisation d’une holding.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<u>Déroulement de l’opération (résumé):</u><o:p></o:p></div>
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<u>Mai 2004</u> : Après de multiples négociations avec
les actionnaires principaux de Celanese, Blackstone acquière 84% des actions
pour 3,9Mds de dollars ce qui correspond à un peu plus de 4x le cash-flow.
Blackstone n’apporte que 650M$ de fonds propres et emprunte « le reste ».<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<u>Septembre 2004 :</u> Après avoir mené plusieurs
opérations de restructuration et déplacé le siège aux Etats-Unis, Blackstone
fait émettre 513M$ par Celanese qui redistribue immédiatement ce montant en
dividendes. Blackstone récupère ainsi 75% de son investissement initial au bout
de 5 mois.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<u>Janvier 2005</u> : Blackstone lance l’introduction
en bourse de Celanese sur le New York Stock Exchange via une émission de titres.
Celanese cote désormais à un multiple de 6,4x son cash-flow (contre 4x
initialement). Cette opération rapporte 800M$ de cash à Blackstone qui conserve
encore le contrôle de la boite.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<u>Mai 2007 :</u> Blackstone vend ses dernières actions
de Celanese… l’ensemble aura finalement rapporté 2,9Mds de dollars de profits
pour Blackstone pour un investissement initial de 650M$.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
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<br /></div>
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Blackstone aura donc multiplié son investissement par 5 en 3
ans. En fait, après calcul et étant donné que pas mal de cash avait été
récupéré dès la première année, le taux de rentabilité interne se retrouve
propulsé à un niveau stratosphérique : <b>+348% annuel</b>. <br />
<br />
Tableau récapitulatif des cash-flows (niveau holding, pour Blackstone et ses co-investisseurs, en millions de dollars):</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFfXx7hQ96qgyi5HdN2AXf5syO7PkVSaJT7WaNLbo4UymuZcyPull3rZf0q66Wbc3QCmejGjGMIDuZrLJrYcVBW3COhcTTwp651BGjn-Ux9W8rZWH7rDLILfIUsI9yJInHrNLqzNrVWjYL/s1600/cash+flow+celanese+LBO+Blackstone.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFfXx7hQ96qgyi5HdN2AXf5syO7PkVSaJT7WaNLbo4UymuZcyPull3rZf0q66Wbc3QCmejGjGMIDuZrLJrYcVBW3COhcTTwp651BGjn-Ux9W8rZWH7rDLILfIUsI9yJInHrNLqzNrVWjYL/s400/cash+flow+celanese+LBO+Blackstone.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
Bon ok, je peux aller me rhabiller avec mes +16,4% annuel :D<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-29509704876874264212013-07-08T14:20:00.000-07:002013-11-06T06:56:11.614-08:00Détectez les manipulations comptables !<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigUx7LOU9zAiZKZk32VVlkbh55elvXHcSyX8UJX8oA0RFK3Z9_ndfAJnlNEkNz1BiR7V0QrCV_6hUW-bLJgGVbBzAt2_7I2HTSOEUhp_q5QEhg0OXlCB8XU1szx0KtMKR6ji6ba1ZeUDZ-/s1600/fraude+comptable.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigUx7LOU9zAiZKZk32VVlkbh55elvXHcSyX8UJX8oA0RFK3Z9_ndfAJnlNEkNz1BiR7V0QrCV_6hUW-bLJgGVbBzAt2_7I2HTSOEUhp_q5QEhg0OXlCB8XU1szx0KtMKR6ji6ba1ZeUDZ-/s200/fraude+comptable.jpeg" width="200" /></a></div>
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Un dirigeant d'entreprise demande à son comptable: "combien font 2+2?" Le comptable fronce les sourcils et répond: "ça dépend, quel résultat désirez-vous pouvoir annoncer?".</div>
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Cette petite blague(*) est révélatrice des nombreuses possibilités de manipulation comptable.</div>
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Comme vous le savez, il est possible de modifier le résultat net en agissant sur:</div>
<ul style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">Les dépréciations (méthode, durée...)</li>
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">Les diverses réévaluations d'actifs (sans même parler du "mark-to-model")</li>
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">La comptabilisation précoce de certains contrats dans le compte de résultat</li>
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">Le choix d'hypothèses actuarielles (pour les fonds de retraite)</li>
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">La capitalisation des intérêts payés pour financer un projet</li>
<li style="margin-left: 15px;">etc...</li>
</ul>
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Voilà, malgré le fait que le résultat net est <b>censé</b> refléter au mieux la capacité bénéficiaire d'une l'entreprise (si le monde était parfait), il s'agit surtout du chiffre le plus manipulable. On remarque facilement que plus on remonte vers le chiffre d'affaire et plus les chiffres sont fiables. Les cash-flows sont également très difficiles à manipuler.</div>
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Jusque là, rien de nouveau pour les analystes chevronnés qui suivent ce blog et qui sont accros aux différents FCFF et FCFE (mesures de cash flows).</div>
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L'objectif de cet article est de montrer un indicateur de "fiabilité du résultat" (**).</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">
Cet indicateur est le ratio entre NI-(CFO+CFI) qui est en fait la différence entre le résultat net et un pseudo "résultat cash" et la moyenne de l'actif opérationnel net: (NOAt+NOAt-1)/2.</div>
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Soit: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiClDGZK2-1glixGxk_XQ98E_XicHrtk9K6iMAlYyJNdp4HCOyFxpH51NnujN7M9P8dlvsz_Met_5YatFBdgNGNGX_n9-owqWntQ9w6FC1mFq3kyuAOPM1_FdC2ENbcOpNUhJUqf8VGKind/s1600/accrual+equation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="accrual ratio (détection de fraude comptable)" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiClDGZK2-1glixGxk_XQ98E_XicHrtk9K6iMAlYyJNdp4HCOyFxpH51NnujN7M9P8dlvsz_Met_5YatFBdgNGNGX_n9-owqWntQ9w6FC1mFq3kyuAOPM1_FdC2ENbcOpNUhJUqf8VGKind/s1600/accrual+equation.png" title="accrual ratio (détection de fraude comptable)" /></a></div>
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Avec:</div>
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<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">NOA = Net Operating Assets = Fonds-propres - Cash + Dette financière</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">NI = Net Income = Résultat Net</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">CFO = Cash from Operations</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">CFI = Cash from Investments</span></li>
</ul>
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Plus ce ratio est élevé et moins le résultat net est soutenu par du cash, ce qui traduit un manque de fiabilité dans le résultat net.</div>
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Il a été remarqué une forte corrélation entre ce ratio et les cas de fraude comptable, ce qui le rend vraiment pertinent.</div>
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Cela pourra donc éviter à certains d'investir dans des boites dont les comptes sont trafiqués et permettra aussi aux plus <span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">téméraires de shorter certaines de ces dernières ! (Comme tous les autres ratios, il ne s'agit pas de l'utiliser seul bien sûr).</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;"><span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">Il est également important de resituer cette information dans son contexte: une société qui n'investit plus dans son outil de production aura plus de dépréciations que d'investissements mais cela ne serait pas un bon signe non plus !</span></span></div>
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Bref, un esprit logique et perspicace est plus important que tous les ratios du monde, mais bien utilisés, ces ratios reste <span style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">d'excellents outils.<br /><br />Je vous souhaite à tous de réaliser de bons investissements !</span></div>
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(*) Blague tirée de "the aggressive conservative investor" de Martin Whitman.<br />
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(**) "Accrual ratio", ratio décrit dans le chapitre "Analysis of Financial Statements" du CFA level II</div>
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AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-13030644971630288632013-04-03T12:59:00.001-07:002013-11-06T06:56:48.661-08:00Quelques stats du portefeuille<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Avec un peu de retard, voici les résultats 2012:<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"> Performances:</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+23,56%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+3,7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+12,26%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">2009<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+16%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Depuis création (4
ans)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 49.6pt;" valign="top" width="66"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+77%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
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<tbody>
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<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.95pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Volatilité: (annuelle)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">12.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.95pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Rendement annuel moyen:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 72.45pt;" valign="top" width="97"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #00b050; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">+15.4%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.95pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Sharpe ratio: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 72.45pt;" valign="top" width="97"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">1.26<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 155.95pt;" valign="top" width="208"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Max Drawdown:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 72.45pt;" valign="top" width="97"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">-15.04%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Le chiffre qui me donne le plus de satisfaction est le max drawdown qui se limite à 15% (perte maximale enregistrée sur la durée de vie du portefeuille).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
En image:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2aQmukbXdL3S9GLNgmtYHeuM2eBOY1yXEvHwXmXXJ2CJ9r2X6ZU3vc9yeM0hpOTD4uiZsDTWA-gQh6OjQjWjlCeAPVCrf5ixWIUqNddVm5N8EQBLzhpuOL1z495WvVxVEx_v0FJ47LHdB/s1600/Portfolio+Performance+Vs+CAC40+Jan+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Evolution du portefeuille d'actifs Vs CAC40" border="0" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2aQmukbXdL3S9GLNgmtYHeuM2eBOY1yXEvHwXmXXJ2CJ9r2X6ZU3vc9yeM0hpOTD4uiZsDTWA-gQh6OjQjWjlCeAPVCrf5ixWIUqNddVm5N8EQBLzhpuOL1z495WvVxVEx_v0FJ47LHdB/s400/Portfolio+Performance+Vs+CAC40+Jan+2013.png" title="Evolution du portefeuille d'actifs Vs CAC40" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<br />
Voici le graphique représentant les rendements journaliers du portefeuille Vs le CAC:</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvL0RfHhyphenhyphenB49IlUhDzq8veOfJep8Aj6pBEAEUTfAv-wUbgJrHjZP-44IZotlD6Vsyu2N4dZjmFvqPcelrlu_sj9saC6iR9ETrX3C7JqDxuQ0aU6cTgZ6Du93MQZLBlUBF6_EPKQABOdpC2/s1600/Portfolio+Vs+CAC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Régression cac40 Vs portefeuille" border="0" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvL0RfHhyphenhyphenB49IlUhDzq8veOfJep8Aj6pBEAEUTfAv-wUbgJrHjZP-44IZotlD6Vsyu2N4dZjmFvqPcelrlu_sj9saC6iR9ETrX3C7JqDxuQ0aU6cTgZ6Du93MQZLBlUBF6_EPKQABOdpC2/s400/Portfolio+Vs+CAC.png" title="Régression cac40 Vs portefeuille" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(cliquez pour agrandir)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
La droite de tendance donne un béta de 0,46 et un alpha de 0,001% par jour (=négligeable). Donc pas de sur-performances mais un risque de marché réduit de 50% par rapport au CAC40.<br />
<br />
Donc malheureusement, sur l'année 2012, je n'enregistre pas un alpha positif (pas significatif en termes de statistiques).<br />
<br />
Je dois préciser que l'indice CAC40 n'est pas une bonne base de comparaison car il s'agit d'un indice "nu" (les dividendes ne sont pas comptés) et représente mal le portefeuille qui contient une grande part de small-caps. Je vais y travailler.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Le coefficient de détermination est de 0,60. Donc en gros, 60% de la performance s'explique par les "variations de marché" et le reste correspond a des mouvements individuels, liés à la sélection des titres.<br />
<br />
Donc finalement le bilan est assez mitigé (les +23% ne m'impressionnent pas), aucun miracle ne s'est produit en 2012. Il faut garder à l'esprit que ces mesures (alpha, etc) se basent sur une année seulement (une mesure sur les années précédentes donnerait un joli alpha mais dénué de sens à cause de la faible allocation en actions de l'époque), attendons donc la suite.<br />
<br />
En tous cas, je suis satisfait de la gestion des risques, le portefeuille évolue de façon assez stable pour le moment (touchons du bois!).<br />
<br />
Bonne continuation à tous dans vos investissements !</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-63267584700401431912013-02-08T05:18:00.001-08:002014-02-13T12:42:54.926-08:00Exproprié par les Pays-Bas !<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhJawtZaDa_Vfh_-sJQqUSVo9KlEd5qKNsDtAz33CCaPQ1a072Frp-RJCBcw8AlWrWdnFowBbI5AxGVyxsusdpHFOUij17ejxMzYc2wipggCjVKRhgB78q759PJNwf-3Lnv93smbX4bWb/s1600/Welcome+to+communist+Netherlands+(SNS+Reaal+Nationalization)+AlphaPourTous.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhJawtZaDa_Vfh_-sJQqUSVo9KlEd5qKNsDtAz33CCaPQ1a072Frp-RJCBcw8AlWrWdnFowBbI5AxGVyxsusdpHFOUij17ejxMzYc2wipggCjVKRhgB78q759PJNwf-3Lnv93smbX4bWb/s320/Welcome+to+communist+Netherlands+(SNS+Reaal+Nationalization)+AlphaPourTous.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Welcome to the Netherlands... and happy SNS Nationalization !</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Vendredi dernier, le ministre des finances néerlandais a annoncé la nationalisation de SNS Reaal, quatrième plus grosse banque du pays.<br />
<br />
Je ne vais pas faire de politique et débattre du bien-fondé de cette intervention, mais en tant que créancier de cette holding de banque-assurance je suis intéressé par la compensation proposée par ce décret. Or, la compensation prévue est de 0€ !<br />
<br />
Oui, vous avez bien lu: <b>aucune compensation</b> n'est prévue pour les actionnaires <b>ET</b> les détenteurs d'obligations junior de ce groupe (seule la dette senior est épargnée).<br />
<br />
Malheureusement pour moi, je suis (ou j'étais) détenteur de dette junior.<br />
<br />
Il va sans dire que cette décision est fortement contesté par l'ensemble des investisseurs se retrouvant ainsi expropriés purement et simplement "communist-style" !<br />
<br />
Pour ma part, la perte n'est pas catastrophique (0,8% de mon portefeuille) mais par principe, je m'oppose farouchement à cette décision qui viole le principe même du droit de propriété. Cela est inacceptable dans un état de droit d’Europe de l'ouest.<br />
<br />
Maintenant, comment pouvoir affirmer que la valeur de ces titres était supérieur à 0€ me direz-vous? Je me base sur la valeur de marché qui prévalait la veille de cette déclaration, ainsi que sur le bilan de cette société (fonds propres positifs) qui n'était d'ailleurs pas en faillite et était même -légèrement- profitable.<br />
<br />
De toutes façon, même dans le cas d'une faillite, les actionnaires peuvent facilement disparaître, mais les créancier récupèrent ce qu'il reste, or dans notre cas il est clair qu'une valeur d'actifs positive résiderait pour les créanciers.<br />
<br />
Depuis l'annonce du vendredi 1er février 2013, <b>les détenteurs des titres en cours d'expropriation ont 10 jours pour faire une objection auprès du conseil d'état néerlandais</b> (Raad van State).<br />
<br />
Les titres concernés sont:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>NL0000390706 (l'action ordinaire)</li>
<li>XS0310904155 (dette subordonnée, mon cas)</li>
<li>XS0382843802 (dette subordonnée)</li>
<li>XS0468954523 (dette subordonnée)</li>
<li>XS0172565482 (dette subordonnée)</li>
<li>XS0552743048 (dette subordonnée)</li>
<li>XS0363514893 (dette subordonnée)</li>
<li>Toutes autres actions du groupe</li>
<li>Les certificats ...</li>
</ul>
Le litige porte sur un montant de plusieurs Milliards d'euros.<br />
<br />
Evidemment je ne peux qu'encourager mes lecteurs à procéder ainsi. Pour ce faire vous pouvez vous inspirer d'un modèle de lettre que je partage ici: <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B389H6Nh3F-MVlZTQTR0MGM3MFE/edit?usp=sharing"> sur google doc</a><br />
<br />
Je vous invite également à suivre <a href="http://www.devenir-rentier.fr/viewtopic.php?id=3540">cette file</a> du forum francophone "devenir-rentier.fr" dans lequel de nombreuses informations et liens sont fournis. <br />
<br />
Enfin, sachez que plusieurs associations existent afin de procéder à une class action comme VEB (association des Pays-Bas). Vous trouverez leur formulaire d'inscription ici: <a href="https://veb.net/content/HoofdMenu/Acties/SNS/SNSaanmelden.aspx">veb.net</a> (utilisez les outils de traduction automatique de votre navigateur internet).<br />
<br />
Mêlant politique, économie, finance et droit, je pense que cette affaire sera un cas d'école dans les années à venir !</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-63306185960348386822012-12-31T04:08:00.000-08:002013-11-07T05:40:10.976-08:00Analyse de Securidev (cadeau de fin d'année)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVPji3UeQv-fsTTWj6Fx_mHbTy8x4LnwuSG-oIedMlCsiUxBCjgpb5fj0Ez3u4aLyPO3p8zHyFy6RnvJZD3yAFzlgLp0wOzGqPJZevR9BJd8pH8oORzdEzvvtGzCoASDXO7j_TAUz8LO7y/s1600/securidev+cl%C3%A9+scdv.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVPji3UeQv-fsTTWj6Fx_mHbTy8x4LnwuSG-oIedMlCsiUxBCjgpb5fj0Ez3u4aLyPO3p8zHyFy6RnvJZD3yAFzlgLp0wOzGqPJZevR9BJd8pH8oORzdEzvvtGzCoASDXO7j_TAUz8LO7y/s200/securidev+cl%C3%A9+scdv.jpg" width="166" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Petit cadeau pour ces fêtes de
fin d’année : la découverte et l’analyse de Sécuridev ! Sécuridev
conçoit, produit et commercialise des systèmes d’accès et de verrouillage comme
des serrures de haute sécurité, des portes blindées et des contrôleurs d’accès.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Très bien me direz-vous, mais qu’est
ce que cette société a de spécial ? Du point de vue financier, Sécuridev
est une véritable machine à cash, quasiment sans dettes, avec pas mal de liquidités
de côté (27M€) et qui présente actuellement un ratio EV/EBITDA de 1,8 ! </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Vous comprenez désormais mon
engouement.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Le titre (ticker : SCDV)
s’échange actuellement autour de 23€ pour 3,34€ de bénéfices net par action en
2011 soit un trailing PER de 6,9.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
La marge nette sur chiffre
d’affaire est correcte et s’établie autour de 5%, produisant un ROE (retour sur
capitaux propres) de 10,2%. Cette marge devrait pâtir de la faiblesse actuelle
de l’activité économique et tout particulièrement de la chute des mises en
chantier pour ce qui est des serrures et système d’accès destinés au bâtiment.
Néanmoins, cette chute devrait tout de même être tempérée par le marché des secondes
montes qui correspond généralement à 50% de ventes.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
La structure extrêmement robuste
du bilan (current ratio de 2,2) devrait également permettre à Sécuridev de
passer les prochaines années sans encombre et retrouver les mêmes marges sur le
long terme.<br />
<br />
Je viens de rendre publique mon <a href="http://fr.scribd.com/doc/118483431/Investment-Case-SCDV" target="_blank">analyse complète de Sécuridev</a> (pdf de 6 pages)
que vous pouvez télécharger gratuitement sur scribd.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Personnellement, Sécuridev est
désormais l’une des 3 plus grosses lignes de mon portefeuille et je suis prêt à
en acheter de nouveau si le cours venait à baisser.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
J’espère que <a href="http://fr.scribd.com/doc/118483431/Investment-Case-SCDV" target="_blank">cette analyse</a> vous aura intéressé et
je vous souhaite de passer d’excellentes fêtes de fin d’année !</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
PS : je remercie Benjamin M. de m’avoir fait découvrir cette société il y a quelques temps.</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-54118324018453100702012-09-30T15:08:00.000-07:002012-10-01T15:05:59.825-07:00Marasme en haute mer<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
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<span style="text-align: left;"></span></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguCVzjdZ-twkZS2Ywcw0zUOYvxAvLbNDe1OzZKFUijDpiOmb7HssohRVUrragCTT9yuBp_vHBOuLzhyEGqlvkDcDpn0DofhfVxVqJrie_TMO5Whv1scl8jMaU7ppzf9J4fvLpgL3qyiWXA/s1600/Tempete+Vraquiers+Economie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguCVzjdZ-twkZS2Ywcw0zUOYvxAvLbNDe1OzZKFUijDpiOmb7HssohRVUrragCTT9yuBp_vHBOuLzhyEGqlvkDcDpn0DofhfVxVqJrie_TMO5Whv1scl8jMaU7ppzf9J4fvLpgL3qyiWXA/s200/Tempete+Vraquiers+Economie.jpg" title="tempete vraquiers economie" width="200" /></a><span style="text-align: left;">Depuis mai 2008 la situation n’a fait qu’empirer pour le transport maritime. </span><span style="text-align: left;"><br />L’indice « Baltic Dry Index » qui correspond à une « moyenne » du prix de location d’un navire (vraquier) pour une journée, est passé de 10 000 à 700 en 4 ans. Cela signifie que les sociétés propriétaires de ces vraquiers reçoivent 14 fois moins de revenus qu’avant ! <br /><br />L’importance des charges fixes a donc naturellement fait basculer le résultat net en territoire négatif dans de nombreux cas.<br /><br />Voici l'évolution de cet indice sur 5 ans : (cliquez pour agrandir)</span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxBt2WzL1no_Rh6n_o3hm97MtCc1Sm28J7huE-Zv8NvDerJWQ58DTVguURwT2JpivhgFC5aeJkAKPBVu1yfPw0oMh0KCH_u6KPEwERUi8Gf_iOeckvMvwG55i_SDtuuT36eviOrj4td1G/s1600/Baltic+Dry+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxBt2WzL1no_Rh6n_o3hm97MtCc1Sm28J7huE-Zv8NvDerJWQ58DTVguURwT2JpivhgFC5aeJkAKPBVu1yfPw0oMh0KCH_u6KPEwERUi8Gf_iOeckvMvwG55i_SDtuuT36eviOrj4td1G/s320/Baltic+Dry+Index.jpg" title="Baltic Dry Index" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Source : Bloomberg (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart</a>)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Le secteur des porte-conteneurs est moins dramatiquement touché
comme en atteste le graphique ci-dessous.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1eNUG8Gt18sou4L-PN-PkawSltIzMilXLuB4Iqng54mTX4joSsWCJJbE2bniW85pQZLzNSCjFJ3f3QF3pJwhVYjnIqM33k8i_0rcCiG3NcrHc7X03Lre06TgbmTD_rTpPoJSBq4ML9GJQ/s1600/Maersk+Broker+Time+Charter+Rate+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1eNUG8Gt18sou4L-PN-PkawSltIzMilXLuB4Iqng54mTX4joSsWCJJbE2bniW85pQZLzNSCjFJ3f3QF3pJwhVYjnIqM33k8i_0rcCiG3NcrHc7X03Lre06TgbmTD_rTpPoJSBq4ML9GJQ/s320/Maersk+Broker+Time+Charter+Rate+Index.jpg" title="Maersk Container Index" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
<!--[endif]--></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Source : Maersk (<a href="http://www.soefart.dk/gfx/Container_Market.pdf">http://www.soefart.dk/gfx/Container_Market.pdf</a>)</div>
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<br /></div>
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</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Si cela vous intéresse d’investir dans ce secteur, vous pouvez vous pencher sur le géant Maersk, Diana Containership ou encore une petite société japonaise trouvée par Serge du blog
« <a href="http://www.berichcorp.com/">http://www.berichcorp.com/</a> » :</div>
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.05pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
Société</div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 79.45pt;" valign="top" width="106"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Market Cap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.6pt;" valign="top" width="111"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">EV/EBITDA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">PER<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.75pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Price/Book<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.1pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Debt /
Equity<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.05pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Maersk<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 79.45pt;" valign="top" width="106"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">177,670 M
DKK (=24Mds€)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.6pt;" valign="top" width="111"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">4.23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">12.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.75pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.83<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.1pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.53<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.05pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Diana
Containership<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 79.45pt;" valign="top" width="106"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">180 M$<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.6pt;" valign="top" width="111"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">15<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.75pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.86<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.1pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.05pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Naigai Trans
Line<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 79.45pt;" valign="top" width="106"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">4,731 M</span><span lang="EN-US">¥
(=47M€)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.6pt;" valign="top" width="111"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 75.45pt;" valign="top" width="101"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">7.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 83.75pt;" valign="top" width="112"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 71.1pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Sources : <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/9384:JP">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/9384:JP</a><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Naigai affiche des ratios extrêmement intéressants et je
remercie Serge pour l’avoir dénichée. L’information étant en japonais, il est
donc compliqué d‘approfondir l’analyse et de suivre son actualité. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Revenons au secteur le plus touché : le transport de
marchandises « en vrac » (céréales, charbon, minerais, phosphate…).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
L’élément clé pour savoir si ce secteur va se redresser est l’évolution du
nombre de navires en opération. En ce moment, 5 % de la flotte est détruite
annuellement mais les nombreuses livraisons de vraquiers font augmenter la
flotte totale. Ces livraisons devraient chuter en 2013.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Voici deux slides provenant de rapports financiers de « Excel
Maritime » et de « Navios Maritime » concernant cette
évolution :</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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style='width:453.75pt;height:339.75pt'>
<v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\Mehdi\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image004.png"
o:title="scrapping EXM"/>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3qB4VTvxKv7wjBS_FLUhgjDXm-HZS1iRpuOb8eKPrT1EST9hdRt46jyrCUV1smKu3aeH4w12NYvAoirbkIHyCmPQbVRErwSY4PuyVsQr69n5sYDRayxtDBoue2P0Op78fpjnRplpkB_yW/s1600/scrapping+EXM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3qB4VTvxKv7wjBS_FLUhgjDXm-HZS1iRpuOb8eKPrT1EST9hdRt46jyrCUV1smKu3aeH4w12NYvAoirbkIHyCmPQbVRErwSY4PuyVsQr69n5sYDRayxtDBoue2P0Op78fpjnRplpkB_yW/s320/scrapping+EXM.png" title="Destruction de Navires Vraquiers" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">Sources: Clarkson's Research, publié dans le rapport du 2ème trimestre 2012 de Excel Maritime.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi106HJWHW_eoXXdgjQL95kjpC1FcMVb47zow3TGXcTlEH_o4iEwrN1Z3KDPBO7Cy4BetE224uLzi24FFaCeKa875t0qwek9d9YBWx9poLAx2V3N1FSRH8h1p7M8trlim5Wf_K8lAR3l5MJ/s1600/Scrapping+Dynamics+NM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi106HJWHW_eoXXdgjQL95kjpC1FcMVb47zow3TGXcTlEH_o4iEwrN1Z3KDPBO7Cy4BetE224uLzi24FFaCeKa875t0qwek9d9YBWx9poLAx2V3N1FSRH8h1p7M8trlim5Wf_K8lAR3l5MJ/s320/Scrapping+Dynamics+NM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sources: Clarkson's research, publié dans le rapport du 2ème trimestre de Navios Maritime.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div class="MsoNormal">
Société</div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.8pt;" valign="top" width="92"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Market Cap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.4pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">EV/EBITDA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="83"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">PER<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.65pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Price/Book<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Debt /
Equity<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.35pt;" valign="top" width="71"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Current
ratio<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Navios
Maritime<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.8pt;" valign="top" width="92"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">369 M$<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.4pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">8.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="83"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">8.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.65pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.34<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1.26<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.35pt;" valign="top" width="71"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1.46<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Excel
Maritime<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.8pt;" valign="top" width="92"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">61 M$<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.4pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="83"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"> (Négatif)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.65pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.042<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.68<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.35pt;" valign="top" width="71"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.49<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Diana
Shipping<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.8pt;" valign="top" width="92"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">535 M$<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.4pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">3.87<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="83"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">6.25<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.65pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.43<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.31<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.35pt;" valign="top" width="71"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 65.5pt;" valign="top" width="87"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Safe
Bulkers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.8pt;" valign="top" width="92"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">448 M$<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.4pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">6.82<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="83"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">4.87<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 76.65pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1.33<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 61.6pt;" valign="top" width="82"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">1.46<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.35pt;" valign="top" width="71"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">0.72<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Parmi ces sociétés, ma préférée est Diana Shipping car elle présente un bilan
financier vraiment solide (current ratio de 9 !) et sa flotte est plutôt
jeune (6 ans en moyenne) ce qui lui permet d’être compétitive (moins de frais
de maintenance et des moteurs consommant moins de carburant). La flotte de Diana Shipping est intégralement utilisée (99,6 %) par des contrats s'achevant majoritairement autour de 2014.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Il est possible d’être séduit par Excel Maritime mais avec
un current ratio de 0,49, cette société est confrontée à de sérieux problèmes
de cash. C’est presque une option d’achat sur l’indice « Baltic Dry Index » !
Certains spéculateurs pourront néanmoins être intéressés par l'extraordinaire price-to-book de 4 %.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Je vous invite à suivre cet excellent blog (anglophone) sur le transport maritime : <a href="http://gcaptain.com/">http://gcaptain.com/</a> (voir cet article : <a href="http://gcaptain.com/global-bulk-shipping-fleet-doomed/">http://gcaptain.com/global-bulk-shipping-fleet-doomed/</a>)<br />
<br />
Information AMF (art. 632-1) : je ne détiens personnellement aucun
titre dans les sociétés citées dans cet article.</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-41991032254341313682012-08-26T14:46:00.000-07:002012-09-02T04:50:23.494-07:00Immobilier : l’effet cliquet<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKLb9Hm5Yl1ocWlaxcHJ1KGEirj0SnSi9HkQs2MDdKc1IB3qJVfU3BFi-4USFtywooe02V-nH5YMs63NIuBah8c8T2Pj2QMZvi8uTgG1wdrglcUgHQro8w-4mC7OaAP2w6CZQcYKYYIGuN/s1600/effet+cliquet+immobilier+krach.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Effet cliquet immobilier krach" border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKLb9Hm5Yl1ocWlaxcHJ1KGEirj0SnSi9HkQs2MDdKc1IB3qJVfU3BFi-4USFtywooe02V-nH5YMs63NIuBah8c8T2Pj2QMZvi8uTgG1wdrglcUgHQro8w-4mC7OaAP2w6CZQcYKYYIGuN/s200/effet+cliquet+immobilier+krach.jpg" title="Effet cliquet immobilier krach" width="148" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
- Alors où est le krach ?<br />
- Ne vous inquiétez pas, vous serez bientôt servis ! <br />
<br />
Comme vous le savez, je suis très pessimiste concernant l’immobilier en France : les rendements locatifs sont extrêmement faibles, le chômage est en hausse, les taux d’emprunt
sont au plus bas, les banques prêtent de moins en moins et les incitations
fiscales (scellier etc) sont en passe de disparaitre !<br />
<br />
Alors que se passe-t-il ? Nous sommes actuellement dans une période d’attentisme appelée "<b>effet cliquet</b>": les vendeurs refusent de voir la réalité en face et donc de baisser leurs
prétentions tandis que les rares acheteurs solvables attendent des baisses de
prix importantes.<br />
<br />
Les éléments qui confortent cette hypothèse:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Au deuxième trimestre <b>les volumes de transactions ont baissé
de 40%</b> par rapport au deuxième trimestre 2011.</li>
<li>Malgré le fait que les taux des crédits immobiliers ont atteint leur niveau le
plus bas historique, atteignant 3,15 % sur 20 ans (août 2012).</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<u>
L’effet cliquet définit par Wikipedia :</u><span style="background: #F9F9F9; color: #111111; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Il correspond au comportement des propriétaires fonciers
(particuliers ou personnes morales) qui ne souhaitent pas mettre en vente leurs
biens lors du climat du début de la phase de baisse. La diminution de la
liquidité du marché foncier provoque ainsi une tension sur l'offre de foncier.
Celle-ci est caractérisée par une chute notable des transactions mais aussi par
une forte résistance des prix à la baisse.</i></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Cet attentisme est principalement
expliqué par le fait que les vendeurs mettent en vente leurs biens à prix
initial trop élevé, souvent basé sur une anticipation de la poursuite de la
hausse du marché. Il est également relié à l'aversion psychologique des
vendeurs à accepter des pertes et par conséquent il est souvent observé un
refus des vendeurs de baisser le prix sur une période prolongée.</i></span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Source : <a href="http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulle_immobili%C3%A8re#L.27effet_de_cliquet:_un_frein_.C3.A0_la_baisse">effet-cliquet.wikipedia</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quoi qu’il en soit, je ne vois pas l’intérêt de s’embêter
avec de l’immobilier locatif qui propose des rendements de 5% brut soit 2-3%
net (effet de levier négatif !).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alors, est-ce le calme avant la tempête ?</div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-80842156516335633622012-08-26T08:50:00.000-07:002012-08-26T12:53:25.262-07:00Performances: 3 ans et demi !<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Depuis sa création en février 2009, le portefeuille affiche une performance de <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">+52%</span></b> soit une moyenne de <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">+12,7% </span></b>net par an (dividendes, taxes et frais de transaction compris).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJyr73oLsySrTFUUJhWxYlxSmAyXjVRQF0FX5tT1gIfOuVAjfvDLo4v4JRhXxvHj-0N4TX2-oQNXnX5-6bydybQx1aN8a8_ChE6GJ5KDkClwGMYeQXJarU_AJaiKhw7RpolkS47fKfQIoO/s1600/Portfolio+Performance+Vs+CAC40.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJyr73oLsySrTFUUJhWxYlxSmAyXjVRQF0FX5tT1gIfOuVAjfvDLo4v4JRhXxvHj-0N4TX2-oQNXnX5-6bydybQx1aN8a8_ChE6GJ5KDkClwGMYeQXJarU_AJaiKhw7RpolkS47fKfQIoO/s400/Portfolio+Performance+Vs+CAC40.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Performances du portefeuille (<span style="color: blue;"><b>en bleu</b></span>) depuis sa création *</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Comme vous pouvez le voir, le "béta" (exposition au marché action) a fortement augmenté ces dernières années, ce qui se traduit par une plus forte volatilité ainsi qu'une corrélation au CAC40 accrue. Le portefeuille reste tout de même moins volatil que l'indice parisien.<br />
<br />
<u>La stratégie peut se résumer en 5 points:</u><br />
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: 0px;">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Contrariante</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Orientée "Value"</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Focalisée sur le long terme</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Basée sur l'analyse fondamentale</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Active sur les marchés les moins efficients</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;">La distribution des rendements journaliers laisse apparaître un skewness positif (les fortes variations sont davantage positives que négatives) souhaité par tout investisseur présentant une aversion au risque.</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0xpU08Se325rWJ6wVS24RkfXsB_ldJnIMkV2LrNGXY9diHm8zLg8t_j3FBIJ9mpxqMTfyX3XWXeCk1r6Rp6jHymtLIS8HTiXN8CWcpiLyfCPcxPJX289qfx1vkm1qYPULe6BL1odlOApk/s1600/daily+histogram_modif.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0xpU08Se325rWJ6wVS24RkfXsB_ldJnIMkV2LrNGXY9diHm8zLg8t_j3FBIJ9mpxqMTfyX3XWXeCk1r6Rp6jHymtLIS8HTiXN8CWcpiLyfCPcxPJX289qfx1vkm1qYPULe6BL1odlOApk/s400/daily+histogram_modif.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Distribution des rendements journaliers</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><br />Je vais continuer à gérer ce portefeuille en poursuivant la même stratégie et en me focalisant encore davantage sur l'analyse des cash flows. <br /><br />N'hésitez pas a vous inscrire à la newsletter afin d'être au courant du prochain post.<br /><br /><br />(*)<u style="font-style: italic;"> Note:</u><i> la comparaison avec l'indice CAC40 n'est faite qu'à titre de rappel historique de l'état du marché. La comparaison est biaisée étant donné que cet indice ne prend pas en compte les dividendes et n'est pas représentatif du portefeuille.</i></span></div>
<div style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
</div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6880736623217637938.post-13182788187857749422012-07-31T19:07:00.000-07:002012-08-26T12:53:58.741-07:00Analyse FLE: Hold<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRteFFJZqq1pxhagKI2bHVlNe-4a49LgLUsALX2HByjhaA8woqzZYWI64C32shrX5rGvu6veYva-bcPcwUAMNR1YExRoIewVunkT4Wb8xS2P3MYH4WQ_Xy52_lvjMScfrQlh_MEGTgP52D/s1600/Fleury_Michon144.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRteFFJZqq1pxhagKI2bHVlNe-4a49LgLUsALX2HByjhaA8woqzZYWI64C32shrX5rGvu6veYva-bcPcwUAMNR1YExRoIewVunkT4Wb8xS2P3MYH4WQ_Xy52_lvjMScfrQlh_MEGTgP52D/s1600/Fleury_Michon144.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Pour ceux qui suivent cette société (Fleury Michon), vous trouverez ci-dessous une analyse que je viens de réaliser : (désolé, en anglais)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/101695789/Investment-Analysis-Fleury-Michon">http://www.scribd.com/doc/101695789/Investment-Analysis-Fleury-Michon</a><br />
<br />
Voici ma conclusion:<br />
<br />
"We consider Fleury Michon to be a good company, well managed and working in its shareholders interests but operating in a competitive environment.<br />
<br />
The current €30 market price per share seems fair but does not allow for a margin of safety and our recommendation is then to hold. Everything else being equal, we would consider buying if the price was to fall below €25."<br />
<br />
Donc rien de bien excitant. Je tenais tout de même à partager ce travail avec ceux qui suivent cette valeur.<br />
<br />
Par contre, je prépare actuellement deux analyses financières de sociétés vraiment très intéressantes vu leur niveau de valorisation. Il va falloir patienter !<br />
<br />
<u>PS:</u> Merci à Benjamin pour m'avoir fait découvrir l'une des 2 sociétés en cours d'analyse.<br />
<br />
<i>Information AMF (art. 632-1): je détiens personnellement des titres "Fleury Michon".</i><br />
<br /></div>
AlphaPourToushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11747357815713839918noreply@blogger.com0